Eur to usd shows minor rise amid mixed economic data signals

EURUSD Analysis

Performance after Thursday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Thursday	0.11%	12.3 Pips
Week to-date	-0.47%	-53 Pips
May	-1.17%	-132.3 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

No major events for the day.

What happened lately

The economic data from the United States in April and May 2025 reveals mixed signals. Industrial Production saw no change, holding firm at 0% in April compared to a contraction of -0.3% in March. However, the Retail Trade Control Group witnessed a decline, shifting from 0.5% in March to -0.2% in April. The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index also registered a further contraction, dropping to -9.2 points in May. A notable decrease in the PPI excluding Food and Energy sectors was observed, from 0.4% in March to -0.4% in April, while the Producer Price Index for April fell to 2.4% from 2.7%. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Fed’s Manufacturing Business Outlook showed some improvement in May, reaching -4 points, up from -26.4 points in April. Initial unemployment claims slightly rose, but overall, the data reveals modest signs of improvement in manufacturing sentiments alongside some deflationary pressures evident in producer prices.

Turning to the Euro Area, there was an increase in employment growth to 0.3% in Q1 2025, a positive movement compared to 0.1% in Q4 2024. Despite this positive employment trend, the GDP growth rate, while steady at 1.2%, saw a quarterly decline to 0.3% from 0.4%. On the bright side, Euro Area Industrial Production witnessed a robust surge, rising from 1.1% in February to 2.6% in March. In Germany, consumer prices remained stable, with both the monthly and harmonized indices showing no change, indicating consistent but moderate inflationary pressures.

For the EURUSD, the latest data exhibits both bullish and bearish elements. The Euro Area’s improvement in employment and industrial production could lend some support to the euro. However, the consistent yet unchanging growth rates, coupled with stable inflation in Germany, do not provide a strong impetus for a significant euro appreciation. Conversely, U.S. data highlights some resilience in manufacturing but showcases weakening retail figures and subdued producer prices, pointing to softening inflation pressures which may dampen the dollar’s strength. As such, the EURUSD experienced a minor rise by 0.11% to 1.11872, reflecting consolidation as traders assess these mixed signals. This consolidation phase in EURUSD indicates a balanced tug-of-war between economic data from both the Eurozone and the U.S., awaiting clearer directional cues.

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What can we expect from EURUSD today?

EURUSD on Thursday rose 0.11% to 1.11872. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising.

Updated daily direction for EURUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 1.11621 (S1).

Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 1.12280 or trades above daily pivot 1.11951. Break above could target R1 at 1.12201. While to the downside, we are looking at 1.11621 (S1) and daily low of 1.11700 as support levels. EURUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 1.12280 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.

For the week to-date, take note that EURUSD is bearish as the pair posted lower by -0.47%.

Key levels to watch out:

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