Gbpusd rises amid mixed economic data from US and UK

GBPUSD Analysis

Performance after Thursday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Thursday	0.32%	42 Pips
Week to-date	0.08%	10.4 Pips
May	-0.12%	-15.5 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

No major events for the day.

What happened lately

The release of U.S. economic data for April and May 2025 provides a mixed but generally weak picture of the economy. Industrial production remained unchanged at 0%, following a contraction in March. The retail trade control group saw a decline to -0.2% from 0.5% in March. The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index dropped further, indicating continued manufacturing challenges, while the U.S. Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey showed an improvement, albeit still in negative territory at -4 points. In terms of price levels, the Producer Price Index (PPI) declined, with both the overall index and the index excluding food and energy sectors experiencing drops. Notably, the PPI excluding food and energy sectors over 12 months decreased to 3.1%. Additionally, retail trade growth slowed substantially, and initial unemployment claims rose slightly. These indicators collectively suggest a sluggish U.S. economy facing deflationary pressures, with a weakening manufacturing sector and subdued consumer spending.

In the U.K., the economic outlook also seemed somewhat soft in March 2025. The one-month GDP contracted to 0.2% from 0.5% in February, reflecting deceleration in economic activity. Industrial and manufacturing production both decreased significantly, indicating challenges in the productive sectors. The GDP flash estimate for Q1 2025 was lower at 1.3% compared to 1.5% in Q4 2024, despite a noticeable growth in the three-month GDP estimate for Q1 2025, which rose to 0.7% from 0.1%. This growth hints at recovery over quarterly standards, albeit at a slower year-on-year pace. However, the immediate monthly and production data portray a scenario of contraction.

The exchange rate of GBPUSD has been influenced slightly due to these economic conditions. Given the weakness in both the U.S. and U.K. economies, the gains in GBPUSD on Thursday by 0.32% leading to a level of 1.32998 reflect temporary reactions rather than structural strength in the pound. With no major economic events expected, the currency pair remains in a consolidation phase. If the U.S. economic data hints at further deflationary pressures without a significant uplift in consumer activity, and the U.K.’s economic trends remain mixed, GBPUSD may continue experiencing slight fluctuations driven more by external market forces and other macroeconomic news.

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What can we expect from GBPUSD today?

GBPUSD on Thursday rose 0.32% to 1.32998. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising.

Updated daily direction for GBPUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 1.32647 (S1).

Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 1.33194 or trades above daily pivot 1.32921. Break above could target R1 at 1.33271. While to the downside, we are looking at 1.32647 (S1) and daily low of 1.32570 as support levels. GBPUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 1.33194 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.

For the week to-date, take note that GBPUSD is mixed as compared to the prior week.

Key levels to watch out:

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