USDCHF Analysis
| Performance after Thursday | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Thursday | -0.69% | -57.7 Pips |  |
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| Week to-date | 0.5% | 41.9 Pips |  |
||
| May | 1.2% | 99.2 Pips |  |
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Upcoming key events (London Time)
No major events for the day.
What happened lately
The U.S. economic data for April 2025 presents a mixed picture. Industrial production rose to 0% from a negative 0.3% in March, indicating stabilization in the manufacturing sector. However, the Retail Trade Control Group saw a decline to -0.2% from 0.5%, suggesting reduced consumer spending. Furthermore, the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index fell further into negative territory at -9.2 points, highlighting ongoing weakness in the manufacturing sector. Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index (PPI) excluding Food and Energy experienced a significant drop to -0.4% from 0.4%, and the annual PPI excluding Food and Energy decreased slightly to 3.1% from 3.3%. The overall PPI also fell to 2.4% from 2.7%, reflecting a decrease in wholesale inflation pressures. On a brighter note, the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey saw a substantial improvement, climbing to -4 points from -26.4 points, indicating a potential rebound in manufacturing sentiment. Despite these positive signals, retail trade figures were lackluster, with monthly retail trade falling to 0.1% from 1.5% and retail trade excluding automobiles also dropping to 0.1% from 0.5%. Additionally, initial unemployment claims showed a slight increase, rising to 229,000 from 228,000, suggesting persistent labor market challenges.
The recent data indicates mixed signals for USDCHF. The decline in retail sales and the fall in the PPI suggests a weaker economic outlook and inflationary pressures in the U.S., which could lead to a potential depreciation of the USD against the CHF. This is reflected in the recent performance of the USDCHF pair, which dropped significantly by -0.69% to 0.83573, showing consolidation. With the lack of major upcoming events, traders might focus on interpreting these data points, particularly retail and manufacturing indicators, to anticipate the Federal Reserve’s policy direction. Given the current economic conditions, if the sentiment persists, the USDCHF may remain under pressure with the dollar experiencing downside risks against the Swiss franc unless there are signs of economic improvement or supportive monetary policies from the Federal Reserve.
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What can we expect from USDCHF today?
USDCHF on Thursday dropped -0.69% to 0.83573. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling.
Updated daily direction for USDCHF looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 0.83293 (S1).
Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 0.84184 or trades above daily pivot 0.83739. Break above could target R1 at 0.84018. While to the downside, we are looking at 0.83293 (S1) and daily low of 0.83459 as support levels. USDCHF need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below 0.83459 would indicate selling pressure.
For the week to-date, take note that USDCHF is bullish as the pair continued to trade higher and is up by 0.5% over the past few days.
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 0.84743 |
| R2 | 0.84464 |
| R1 | 0.84018 |
| Daily Pivot | 0.83739 |
| S1 | 0.83293 |
| S2 | 0.83014 |
| S3 | 0.82568 |
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