USDJPY Analysis
| Performance after Tuesday | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Tuesday | -0.26% | -38 Pips |  |
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| Week to-date | -0.84% | -121.9 Pips | |
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| May | 0.99% | 141.2 Pips |  |
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Upcoming key events (London Time)
No major events for the day.
What happened lately
In Japan, the Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance witnessed a decline in April 2025, falling to -408.91 billion yen from a revised -291.74 billion yen in March. The Ministry of Finance reported a notable depletion in the Merchandise Trade Balance Total, which slipped significantly from 544.1 billion yen in March to -115.8 billion yen in April 2025. This downturn signals a negative shift as exports have not been able to keep pace with imports. Furthermore, Japan encountered a decrease in its 12-month import growth rate, which dropped to -2.2% in April 2025 from 2% in March. In the same period, export growth rate also saw a decline, reducing to 2% in April from 3.9% in March. These figures depict a challenging trade environment, reflecting diminishing external demand for Japan’s goods amidst a potentially weaker global economic scenario or a stronger yen that makes Japanese goods more expensive abroad.
The economic news from Japan could contribute to influencing the USDJPY (U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen) currency pair. On Tuesday, a drop of -0.26% to 144.47 was noted in the USDJPY rate. The decline in Japan’s trade balance and the slowdown in export growth portrays a sluggish economic outlook, which might typically weaken the Japanese yen as investors could shy away from the currency, seeking potentially stronger investment havens. A weaker yen would usually result in a higher USDJPY rate. Despite these expectations, the drop seen in the USDJPY suggests other mitigating factors are at play, perhaps a weakening U.S. dollar or specific market sentiments influencing currency dynamics temporarily. However, unless countered by stronger economic policies or interventions, the deteriorating trade balance may cause further pressure on the yen in the long term, potentially causing the USDJPY rate to rise. With no major events for the day, these trade-related statistics provide substantial guidance on the current trajectory of the yen.
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What can we expect from USDJPY today?
USDJPY on Tuesday dropped -0.26% to 144.47. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling in oversold zone.
Updated daily direction for USDJPY looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Tuesday trading session.
Looking ahead for the day, immediate support level is at 143.87 (S1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 143.27 (S2). To the upside, with the current momentum bearish, we prefer to look at breakout of the recent daily high of 145.51 as a potential indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below 144.09 would indicate selling pressure.
For the week to-date, take note that USDJPY is bearish as the pair posted lower by -0.84%.
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 146.72 |
| R2 | 146.12 |
| R1 | 145.3 |
| Daily Pivot | 144.69 |
| S1 | 143.87 |
| S2 | 143.27 |
| S3 | 142.44 |