Nzdusd drops as New Zealand retail turnover declines despite positive trade balance changes

NZDUSD Analysis

Performance after Thursday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Thursday	-0.67%	-40 Pips
Week to-date	0.26%	15 Pips
May	-0.63%	-37.6 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Thu 11:45 PM NZD Retail Trade Turnover (3-mth)

What happened lately

In New Zealand, there was a slight decrease in the Retail Trade Turnover for the first quarter of 2025, dropping from 0.9% in the previous quarter to 0.8%, as reported by Stats NZ. However, there is positive news on the trade front. New Zealand’s exports rose significantly in April 2025 to $7.84 billion, up from a revised $7.41 billion in March. This increase in exports contributed to an improved 12-month trade balance, which now stands at -4.81$, a notable improvement from March’s revised figure of -6.13$. Meanwhile, imports decreased to $6.42 billion in April from a revised $6.61 billion in March, which also contributed to the healthier trade balance. These statistics indicate a strengthening of New Zealand’s export market and a potential easing of the trade deficit.

In the United States, the labor market showed signs of strength with the number of initial unemployment insurance claims dropping to 227K for the week ending 17 May, down from the previously reported 229K. This reduction in unemployment claims suggests a robust U.S. labor market, which is often a positive indicator of economic health and consumer confidence.

The recent economic news from New Zealand paints a mixed picture with decreased retail activity, but improving trade metrics alongside strong export growth. On the other hand, the U.S. economic data reflects continued strength in its labor market. The contrasting economic indicators between New Zealand and the U.S. contributed to the NZDUSD exchange rate experiencing a downturn of -0.67% to 0.58943. The improvement in New Zealand’s trade balance may offer some support to the NZD, but with retail turnover showing a decline, the outlook remains cautious. Unless there’s further significant positive economic data from New Zealand, such as exports continually rising or a turnaround in retail consumption, the NZDUSD may remain under pressure, especially against the backdrop of a resilient U.S. economy.

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What can we expect from NZDUSD today?

NZDUSD on Thursday dropped -0.67% to 0.58943. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling.

Updated daily direction for NZDUSD looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Thursday trading session.

Looking ahead for the day, immediate support level is at S1 0.5876 with break below could see further selling pressure towards S2 at 0.58576. To the upside, with the current momentum bearish, we prefer to look at breakout of the recent daily high of 0.59413 as a potential indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below 0.58903 would indicate selling pressure.

For the week to-date, take note that NZDUSD is mixed as compared to the prior week.

Key levels to watch out:

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