USDJPY Analysis
| Performance after Thursday | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Thursday | 0.27% | 38.1 Pips |  |
||
| Week to-date | -1.19% | -173 Pips |  |
||
| May | 0.63% | 90.1 Pips | |
||
Upcoming key events (London Time)
No major events for the day.
What happened lately
In April 2025, Japan’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) reflected stable inflation dynamics. The overall inflation rate held steady at 3.6%, consistent with the March statistics as per the Statistics Bureau of Japan. However, inflation metrics excluding other sectors slightly accelerated; the inflation rate excluding fresh food rose to 3.5%, up from 3.2% in March, and the CPI excluding food and energy marginally increased to 3% from 2.9% in March. These shifts indicate a slight upward pressure on Japan’s inflation, suggesting that price levels, excluding volatile sectors like food and energy, are becoming more entrenched.
Japan’s trade balance situation in April 2025 exhibited further deterioration. The Merchandise Trade Balance adjusted for the seasonal variations fell significantly to -408.91¥, a notable decline from March’s revised figure of -291.74¥. Additionally, the total Merchandise Trade Balance shifted drastically from a surplus in March of 544.1¥ to a deficit of -115.8¥ in April. This negative balance can be attributed to sluggish export growth, which decelerated to 2% from 3.9% the previous month, along with a notable decline in imports, which decreased by -2.2% in April compared to a 2% increase in March. These developments point to a weakening trade sector, potentially impacting Japan’s economic growth trajectory.
In contrast, recent data from the United States show a slight improvement in the employment situation. Initial unemployment insurance claims dropped to 227K for the week ending 17 May, a slight decrease from the previous figure of 229K, as reported by the Department of Labor. This decline indicates a resilient labor market, albeit the change is marginal.
In terms of USDJPY trading dynamics on Thursday, the pair increased by 0.27% to 144.03, with the pair remaining in consolidation. Japan’s deteriorating trade balance and subdued domestic economic indicators could exert downward pressure on the yen, potentially making it conducive to a weaker yen against the dollar. Concurrently, the marginally positive U.S. unemployment data, despite minor changes, supports the dollar, potentially amplifying the impact on USDJPY. However, in the absence of major upcoming economic events, significant fluctuations may be limited, leaving the pair in a consolidative phase.
Latest from X (Twitter)
What can we expect from USDJPY today?
USDJPY on Thursday rose 0.27% to 144.03. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising in oversold zone.
Updated daily direction for USDJPY looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 143.09 (S1).
Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 144.40 or trades above daily pivot 143.74. While to the downside, the daily low of 142.80 and 143.09 (S1) as immediate support levels. USDJPY need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 144.40 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.
For the week to-date, take note that USDJPY is bearish as the pair posted lower by -1.19%.
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 146.29 |
| R2 | 145.34 |
| R1 | 144.69 |
| Daily Pivot | 143.74 |
| S1 | 143.09 |
| S2 | 142.14 |
| S3 | 141.49 |