Audusd declines amid mixed us economic data and potential federal reserve policy impact

AUDUSD Analysis

Performance after Tuesday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Tuesday	-0.66%	-42.9 Pips
Week to-date	-0.74%	-48 Pips
May	0.72%	46.1 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Wed 02:30 AM AUD Monthly CPI Indicator (12-mth)
Wed 07:00 PM USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thu 01:30 PM USD GDP annual rate

What happened lately

In the United States, several economic indicators paint a varied picture for April 2025. The U.S. House Price Index experienced a slight decrease, moving to -0.1% in March from 0.1% in February, reflecting weaker housing market conditions as reported by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). Meanwhile, durable goods data presents mixed signals. Orders for durable goods excluding transportation saw a modest increase of 0.2% in April, a positive shift from March’s revised figure of -0.2%, indicating some resilience in demand. However, overall new orders for durable goods dropped significantly by 6.3% in April, down from March’s corrected figure of 7.6%, suggesting potential economic headwinds. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft—a key indicator of business investment—also declined to -1.3% for April from 0.3% in March. Additionally, orders for durable goods excluding defense plunged to -7.5% in April, down sharply from a revised 10.5% in March. These figures, provided by the Census Bureau, indicate challenges in the manufacturing sector and broader economic uncertainty.

The mixed economic data from the United States may influence the AUDUSD exchange rate. Given the recent decline in durable goods and a weakened house price index, there could be growing concerns about the U.S. economic outlook, which might affect investor sentiment. Despite a rise in durable goods orders excluding transportation, the steep declines across other indicators might lead to speculation about the Federal Reserve’s future monetary policy decisions, potentially impacting the U.S. dollar. Consequently, any sign of economic slowdown might weigh on the USD, offering short-term support for the AUD. However, with important events on the horizon, including the AUD Monthly CPI Indicator and the USD FOMC Meeting Minutes, investors will likely remain cautious and attentive to upcoming economic data releases. These events could introduce significant volatility to the AUDUSD pair, depending on the insights and outcomes provided.

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What can we expect from AUDUSD today?

AUDUSD on Tuesday dropped -0.66% to 0.64435. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling.

Updated daily direction for AUDUSD looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Tuesday trading session.

Looking ahead for the day, immediate support level is at S1 0.64201 with break below could see further selling pressure towards S2 at 0.63966. To the upside, with the current momentum bearish, we prefer to look at breakout of the recent daily high of 0.64954 as a potential indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below 0.64343 would indicate selling pressure.

For the week to-date, take note that AUDUSD is mixed as compared to the prior week.

Key levels to watch out:

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