Nzdusd drops by 0.77% with market awaiting key rate decisions and economic data

NZDUSD Analysis

Performance after Tuesday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Tuesday	-0.77%	-46.2 Pips
Week to-date	-0.6%	-36.2 Pips
May	0.24%	14.4 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Wed 03:00 AM NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision (Official Cash Rate)
Wed 07:00 PM USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
Wed 07:00 PM NZD RBNZ’s Governor Hawkesby speech
Thu 01:30 PM USD GDP annual rate

What happened lately

In the United States, the economic data for March and April 2025 depicts a mixed picture, particularly concerning the durable goods sector and the housing market. The U.S. House Price Index experienced a slight decrease of -0.1% in March, reflecting a potential cooling in the housing market compared to the 0.1% rise in February. Meanwhile, the Durable Goods Orders excluding Transportation showed a modest increase of 0.2% in April, improving from a revised decrease of -0.2% in March. However, overall Durable Goods – New Orders witnessed a significant drop of 6.3% from the previous month’s 7.6% rise (revised from 9.2%), indicating a slowdown in new orders. Furthermore, Nondefense Capital Goods Orders excluding Aircraft also declined by 1.3% in April, contrasting with a 0.3% increase in March. Notably, Durable Goods Orders excluding Defense had a steep decline of 7.5% in April, in stark contrast to the high 10.5% increase in March. These statistics suggest a potential weakening of investment and manufacturing activity in the U.S. economy during this period.

Regarding the NZDUSD exchange rate, the New Zealand dollar (NZD) dropped by 0.77% to 0.59466 against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Tuesday. The market is anticipating significant upcoming events that could further impact the exchange rate. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is scheduled to announce their Interest Rate Decision on Wednesday, accompanied by a speech from the RBNZ’s Governor Hawkesby. Additionally, the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes will be released, which could offer insights on future monetary policy directions, and the U.S. GDP annual rate is also due on Thursday. The potential implications of these events could either exacerbate or mitigate current trends in the NZDUSD pair. A hawkish stance from the RBNZ could strengthen the NZD, while any signs of economic resilience in the U.S., as indicated by the GDP figures, might bolster the USD, affecting the pair accordingly.

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What can we expect from NZDUSD today?

NZDUSD on Tuesday dropped -0.77% to 0.59466. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling.

Updated daily direction for NZDUSD looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Tuesday trading session.

Looking ahead for the day, immediate support level is at S1 0.59196 with break below could see further selling pressure towards S2 at 0.58925. To the upside, with the current momentum bearish, we prefer to look at breakout of the recent daily high of 0.60063 as a potential indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below 0.59359 would indicate selling pressure.

For the week to-date, take note that NZDUSD is mixed as compared to the prior week.

Key levels to watch out:

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