USDJPY Analysis
| Performance after Tuesday | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Tuesday | 1.07% | 152.3 Pips |  |
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| Week to-date | 1.21% | 172 Pips |  |
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| May | 0.92% | 132 Pips | |
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Upcoming key events (London Time)
Wed 07:00 PM USD FOMC Meeting Minutes Thu 01:30 PM USD GDP annual rate
What happened lately
In March 2025, the U.S. House Price Index experienced a minor downturn, decreasing to -0.1%, a visible decline from the previous month’s figure of 0.1%. This indicates a cooling real estate market. Meanwhile, U.S. Durable Goods Orders excluding Transportation saw an increase of 0.2% in April 2025, recovering from a revised figure of -0.2% in March, showcasing a slight improvement in sectors beyond the transportation industry. However, the broader durable goods market faced setbacks, with new orders decreasing by 6.3% in April, following an initially reported 9.2% in March, revised down to 7.6%, reflecting a notable deceleration. Additionally, nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft fell drastically by 1.3% in April, a steep decline from the previous month’s revised figure of 0.3%, pointing to weaker investment in essential business tools and equipment. Furthermore, the durable goods orders excluding defense plummeted to -7.5% from a revised 10.5% in March, highlighting significant volatility and potential uncertainty in the sector.
The recent economic data from the U.S. indicates mixed signals, with substantial drops in several durable goods categories hinting at a broader weakening in manufacturing and business investment. Such mixed economic indicators can lead to increased caution among investors regarding the U.S. economy’s robustness, potentially causing fluctuations in currency markets. The U.S. dollar’s volatility could be influenced by upcoming key events like the FOMC Meeting Minutes and GDP annual rate, which investors will keenly watch for signs of future economic policy and growth prospects.
The decrease in U.S. durable goods orders could weigh on the U.S. dollar, as it may suggest slowing economic momentum, which, in turn, might prompt a cautious stance from the Federal Reserve. However, the overall decline’s impact was cushioned by anticipation around upcoming high-impact economic data. The USDJPY pair increased by 1.07% to 144.26, influenced by various factors, including differing monetary policy expectations and economic outlook perceptions between the U.S. and Japan. Investors expecting that the FOMC Meeting Minutes may provide further insights into Federal Reserve policies could keep the USD stronger against the yen. Meanwhile, market participants should remain vigilant about potential market corrections, particularly if upcoming economic indicators reveal weaker U.S. growth or prospects of prolonged economic challenges.
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What can we expect from USDJPY today?
USDJPY on Tuesday rose 1.07% to 144.26. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising.
Updated daily direction for USDJPY looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Tuesday trading session.
Looking ahead for the day, immediate upside resistance level is R1 at 145.11 with break above could target R2 at 145.96. While towards the downside, we are looking at daily low of 142.11 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 144.46 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.
For the week to-date, take note that USDJPY is mixed as compared to prior week.
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 147.46 |
| R2 | 145.96 |
| R1 | 145.11 |
| Daily Pivot | 143.61 |
| S1 | 142.76 |
| S2 | 141.26 |
| S3 | 140.41 |