Usdcad rises amid mixed US economic data and potential market volatility

USDCAD Analysis

Performance after Tuesday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Tuesday	0.55%	76.1 Pips
Week to-date	0.57%	78 Pips
May	0.17%	23 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Wed 07:00 PM USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thu 01:30 PM USD GDP annual rate

What happened lately

In the United States, recent economic data have shown mixed trends. The U.S. House Price Index dropped slightly by 0.2%, suggesting a potential cooling in the real estate market. Meanwhile, on a more positive note, Durable Goods Orders excluding Transportation rose by 0.2% in April 2025, showing some resilience in consumer spending on goods apart from transportation. However, overall new orders for Durable Goods fell sharply by 6.3% in April compared to the prior month. Adding to this negative sentiment, Nondefense Capital Goods Orders excluding Aircraft decreased by 1.6% in the same period. Additionally, a significant downturn was seen in Durable Goods Orders excluding Defense, which dramatically shifted to -7.5% from March’s revised figure of 10.5%. These mixed economic signals could be indicative of underlying weaknesses in specific sectors, which might raise concerns about the broader economic outlook.

Regarding the impact on USDCAD, the mixed U.S. economic data might lead to further volatility in the currency pair. The decrease in durable goods orders, including a notable decline in nondefense capital goods orders, suggests slowing economic activity which may put downward pressure on the USD. However, the increase in durable goods orders excluding transportation could provide some support for the USD. Anticipation of upcoming events like the FOMC Meeting Minutes and the GDP annual rate may lead to increased speculative trading and potential adjustments in positioning. Overall, with Canada being a major trading partner to the U.S., any changes in market sentiment based on these data points or upcoming economic releases could influence USDCAD, possibly leading to fluctuations as investors assess the relative strength of the U.S. and Canadian economies.

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What can we expect from USDCAD today?

USDCAD on Tuesday rose 0.55% to 1.38076. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising.

Updated daily direction for USDCAD looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Tuesday trading session.

Looking ahead for the day, immediate upside resistance level is R1 at 1.38553 with break above could target R2 at 1.3903 or figure level area. While towards the downside, we are looking at daily low of 1.37215 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 1.38361 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.

For the week to-date, take note that USDCAD is mixed as compared to the prior week.

Key levels to watch out:

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