Usdchf rises amidst mixed economic performance indicators

USDCHF Analysis

Performance after Tuesday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Tuesday	0.79%	64.4 Pips
Week to-date	0.83%	68 Pips
May	0.24%	20.2 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Wed 07:00 PM USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thu 01:30 PM USD GDP annual rate

What happened lately

In March 2025, the U.S. House Price Index saw a marginal decline of 0.1%, contrasting with the positive uptick of 0.1% reported in February, as per the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). The decline signifies a slowdown in the housing market, which may reflect fluctuations in demand or supply constraints. Turning focus to durable goods, the Census Bureau reports that U.S. Durable Goods Orders, excluding Transportation, rose by 0.2% in April, a recovery from a revised contraction of 0.2% in March. However, new orders for U.S. Durable Goods dramatically decreased by 6.3% in April, compared to the previous revised figure of 7.6% in the prior month. Notably, Nondefense Capital Goods Orders excluding Aircraft fell by 1.3%, declining from a previously updated rate of 0.3% in March. Similarly, U.S. Durable Goods Orders excluding Defense plummeted to -7.5% in April from a notable high of 10.5% (revised) in March. These mixed performances in various sectors of durable goods highlight underlying economic challenges, such as uncertain consumer confidence and business investment levels.

The economic data presents several implications for the USDCHF currency pair. Given a marked decrease in durable goods orders and a softening housing market, there may be apprehensions concerning the resilience of the U.S. economic landscape. Such data can lead to speculation of a subdued pace of economic growth, which often weighs negatively on the U.S. dollar. The appreciating price of USDCHF by 0.79% to 0.82645 on Tuesday may have been driven by other factors, but maintaining such momentum could be challenged if the upcoming U.S. economic indicators, including the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes and GDP annual rate, do not show resilience. If the market perceives these indicators negatively, it could hasten a decline in the strength of the USD, potentially causing a depreciation relative to the Swiss franc, bearing influence on the USDCHF exchange rate. However, any hints of sustained economic support or stronger-than-expected GDP figures might bolster the dollar, complicating a straightforward trajectory for the currency pair. As market participants await these forthcoming events, their sentiment will continue to shape near-term price action in the currency markets.

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What can we expect from USDCHF today?

USDCHF on Tuesday rose 0.79% to 0.82645. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising.

Updated daily direction for USDCHF looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Tuesday trading session.

Looking ahead for the day, immediate upside resistance level is R1 at 0.83005 with break above could target R2 at 0.83364 or figure level area. While towards the downside, we are looking at daily low of 0.81874 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 0.82799 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.

For the week to-date, take note that USDCHF is mixed as compared to the prior week.

Key levels to watch out:

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