Audusd declines amid mixed us economic data and steady australian inflation

AUDUSD Analysis

Performance after Wednesday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Wednesday	-0.33%	-21.5 Pips
Week to-date	-0.94%	-61 Pips
May	0.52%	33.1 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Thu 01:30 PM USD GDP annual rate
Fri 02:30 AM AUD Retail Trade Turnover (seasonally adjusted) (1-mth)
Fri 01:30 PM USD PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy (12-mth)

What happened lately

The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that the Monthly CPI Indicator for April 2025 remained steady at 2.4% when compared to the previous month. This stability suggests that inflation pressures within the Australian economy are currently subdued, providing a stable economic backdrop. However, without an increase, this may indicate a lack of strong consumer demand or other inflationary pressures in the market.

In the United States, various data from March and April 2025 paint a mixed picture of the economic landscape. The U.S. House Price Index declined slightly by 0.1% in March from the previous month’s growth, suggesting potential cooling in the housing market. Durable Goods Orders excluding Transportation showed positive growth of 0.2% in April, rebounding from a contraction in March, which indicates some sector resilience despite broader challenges. However, Durable Goods Orders in general fell by 6.3%, while Nondefense Capital Goods Orders excluding Aircraft declined by -1.3%, and Durable Goods Orders excluding Defense plunged by 7.5%. These significant declines reveal underlying weaknesses in industrial investment and manufacturing sectors, which could dampen the economic outlook for the coming months.

The recent data suggests that the U.S. is facing some industrial sector challenges, which, combined with stable inflation in Australia, can impact the AUDUSD currency pair. The downturn in U.S. durable goods orders and housing prices may exert downward pressure on the U.S. dollar, as it indicates potential economic softness, possibly leading to more dovish monetary policy stances. Meanwhile, the steady Australian CPI could support the Australian dollar if upcoming economic data such as Retail Trade Turnover shows improvements. However, the immediate impact on the AUDUSD will likely hinge on upcoming high-impact U.S. events, like the GDP annual rate report and the PCE Price Index, which can either exacerbate or mitigate current trends depending on whether they allay or heighten economic concerns. Currently, the AUDUSD dropped by 0.33% to 0.64220, reflecting some of the current weak U.S. data’s impact combined with market anticipation for future announcements.

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What can we expect from AUDUSD today?

AUDUSD on Wednesday dropped -0.33% to 0.64220. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling.

Updated daily direction for AUDUSD looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Wednesday trading session.

Looking ahead for the day, immediate support level is at S1 0.64032 with break below could see further selling pressure towards S2 at 0.63844. To the upside, with the current momentum bearish, we prefer to look at breakout of the recent daily high of 0.64534 as a potential indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below 0.64095 would indicate selling pressure.

For the week to-date, take note that AUDUSD is mixed as compared to the prior week.

Key levels to watch out:

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