Eur/usd drops as mixed international economic data surfaces

EURUSD Analysis

Performance after Wednesday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Wednesday	-0.33%	-37.9 Pips
Week to-date	-0.74%	-83.6 Pips
May	-0.43%	-48.3 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Thu 01:30 PM USD GDP annual rate
Fri 01:30 PM USD PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy (12-mth)

What happened lately

In Germany, the unemployment rate for April 2025 remained stable at 6.3%, showing no change from the previous month. However, the unemployment change marked a significant increase to 34,000 from just 4,000 in March, indicating a rise in the number of unemployed individuals. Meanwhile, the consumer confidence in Germany showed slight improvement, with the Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey for June 2025 rising to -19.9 points from -20.8 points in May.

For the Eurozone, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) increased to 94.8 points in May 2025 from 93.6 points in April, suggesting a slight improvement in economic outlook. The Business Climate Indicator (BCI) also improved slightly to -0.55 points from -0.67 points in April. However, the Consumer Confidence Indicator remained unchanged at -15.2 points for both April and May 2025, indicating persistent consumer pessimism.

In the United States, economic data presented a mixed picture with a decline in the House Price Index by -0.1% in March 2025 compared to a 0.1% increase in February. Durable Goods Orders excluding Transportation increased modestly by 0.2% in April 2025 from a revised -0.2% in March, suggesting some resilience in certain sectors. However, new Durable Goods Orders decreased sharply by 6.3% in April, down from a revised figure of 7.6% in March, and Nondefense Capital Goods Orders excluding Aircraft decreased to -1.3% from 0.3%. Durable Goods Orders excluding Defense plummeted to -7.5% from 10.5% in March, reflecting a significant downturn in manufacturing demand.

The EURUSD pair experienced a drop of 0.33% to 1.12925 on Wednesday, influenced by various economic data releases. The stability in Germany’s unemployment rate and the improvement in consumer confidence were counterbalanced by the increase in unemployment change and stagnant consumer sentiment across the Eurozone. In contrast, the U.S. economic data indicated weakness, particularly in durable goods, which could weigh on the U.S. dollar. However, upcoming high-impact events like the U.S. GDP annual rate report and the PCE Price Index release could further influence the EURUSD pairing, depending on whether these indicators show strength or continued economic challenges in the U.S.

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What can we expect from EURUSD today?

EURUSD on Wednesday dropped -0.33% to 1.12925. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling.

Updated daily direction for EURUSD looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Wednesday trading session.

Looking ahead for the day, immediate support level is at S1 1.12687 with break below could see further selling pressure towards S2 at 1.1245. To the upside, with the current momentum bearish, we prefer to look at breakout of the recent daily high of 1.13456 as a potential indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below 1.12834 would indicate selling pressure.

For the week to-date, take note that EURUSD is mixed as compared to the prior week.

Key levels to watch out:

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