Gbpusd drops following mixed US economic data in April 2025

GBPUSD Analysis

Performance after Wednesday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Wednesday	-0.32%	-43.5 Pips
Week to-date	-0.62%	-84.4 Pips
May	0.95%	126.5 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Thu 01:30 PM USD GDP annual rate
Thu 08:00 PM GBP Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speech
Fri 01:30 PM USD PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy (12-mth)

What happened lately

In the United States, recent data from April 2025 indicates mixed signals in the economy, particularly in the durable goods sector. The U.S. Durable Goods Orders excluding Transportation showed a modest recovery, with a 0.2% rise from March’s revised -0.2%. However, the broader category of Durable Goods – New Orders experienced a substantial decrease of 6.3%, following a revising down of March’s figures to 7.6% from the previously reported 9.2%. Similarly, Nondefense Capital Goods Orders excluding Aircraft fell sharply to -1.3%, a significant drop from the revised 0.3% in March. Additionally, the Durable Goods Orders excluding Defense plunged to -7.5% from March’s lofty 10.5%. These figures suggest a cooling in manufacturing and industrial demand, potentially indicating a cautious economic outlook for the upcoming months. Moreover, the U.S. House Price Index for March was at -0.1%, a decline from the positive 0.1% in February, pointing to potential softness in the housing market.

The recent economic data showing declines in U.S. durable goods orders have implications for the GBPUSD exchange rate. The significant drop in new orders and capital goods suggests a slowing U.S. manufacturing economy, which could lead to speculation about the Federal Reserve’s future monetary policy moves, potentially preventing further rate increases. Consequently, the U.S. dollar might weaken, providing upward momentum for GBPUSD. However, the immediate impact on GBPUSD could also be influenced by upcoming high-impact events, including the U.S. GDP annual rate report and the PCE Price Index, as well as statements from the Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. The performance of GBPUSD could fluctuate depending on these events and how they align with market expectations for economic growth and monetary policy in both the United States and the United Kingdom.

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What can we expect from GBPUSD today?

GBPUSD on Wednesday dropped -0.32% to 1.34660. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling.

Updated daily direction for GBPUSD looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Wednesday trading session.

Looking ahead for the day, immediate support level is at S1 1.34364 with break below could see further selling pressure towards S2 at 1.34068. To the upside, with the current momentum bearish, we prefer to look at breakout of the recent daily high of 1.35220 as a potential indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below 1.34496 would indicate selling pressure.

For the week to-date, take note that GBPUSD is mixed as compared to the prior week.

Key levels to watch out:

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