Nzdusd rises amid economic shifts and uncertainties

NZDUSD Analysis

Performance after Wednesday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Wednesday	0.31%	18.7 Pips
Week to-date	-0.32%	-19.2 Pips
May	0.53%	31.4 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Thu 01:30 PM USD GDP annual rate
Fri 01:30 PM USD PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy (12-mth)

What happened lately

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has lowered the Official Cash Rate from 3.5% to 3.25%. Such a reduction may indicate the RBNZ’s efforts to stimulate the economy through more accommodative monetary policy, potentially due to slower economic activity or other growth concerns. A lowered interest rate generally aims to encourage borrowing and spending, fostering economic expansion. However, it may also result in a weaker New Zealand Dollar as investors seek higher returns elsewhere.

In the United States, the economic data presents a mixed picture. The U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) reported a decrease in the House Price Index for March 2025, shifting from a 0.1% rise in February to a -0.1% decline. This drop reflects a slowdown in the housing market, potentially hinting at decreased consumer confidence or higher borrowing costs affecting home purchases. On the other hand, U.S. Durable Goods Orders (excluding Transportation) saw a slight increase of 0.2% in April, suggesting steady demand for non-transport machinery and goods. However, overall durable goods new orders decreased by 6.3%, nondefense capital goods (excluding aircraft) fell to -1.3%, and orders excluding defense dropped by 7.5%, all indicating a decline in business investment and overall economic activity. This mixed data could lead to concerns about the consistency and strength of U.S. economic recovery.

These economic indicators will likely impact the NZD/USD currency pair. The reduction in New Zealand’s interest rate could weaken the New Zealand Dollar, making it less attractive to investors seeking higher yields. Simultaneously, declining indicators from the U.S. such as durable goods orders and the housing index cast doubts on the economic robustness, possibly curbing any strengthening of the USD that might typically follow strong U.S. economic performance. Given these dynamics, the NZD/USD may experience volatility and possible depreciation of the NZD against the USD; however, any negative sentiment towards the USD might counterbalance this effect, leading to a closely contested exchange rate movement. Market participants will also closely observe impending high-impact economic reports like the U.S. GDP annual rate and PCE Price Index, which could further influence the currency pair’s direction.

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What can we expect from NZDUSD today?

NZDUSD on Wednesday rose 0.31% to 0.59653. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling.

Updated daily direction for NZDUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 0.59326 (S1).

Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 0.59793 or trades above daily pivot 0.5956. Break above could target R1 at 0.59886. While to the downside, we are looking at 0.59326 (S1) and daily low of 0.59233 as support levels. NZDUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 0.59793 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.

For the week to-date, take note that NZDUSD is mixed as compared to the prior week.

Key levels to watch out:

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