Usdcad rises amid mixed us economic data and consolidation phase

USDCAD Analysis

Performance after Wednesday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Wednesday	0.18%	24.5 Pips
Week to-date	0.76%	105 Pips
May	0.36%	50 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Thu 01:30 PM USD GDP annual rate
Fri 01:30 PM CAD GDP (12-mth)
Fri 01:30 PM USD PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy (12-mth)

What happened lately

In the United States, several economic indicators have exhibited mixed performance. The U.S. House Price Index took a downturn, recording a decrease to -0.1% in March 2025, signaling a decline in housing market strength. The Durable Goods Orders excluding Transportation showed a modest increase of 0.2% in April 2025, indicative of some resilience in sectors outside transportation. However, there was a significant decline in overall Durable Goods New Orders by 6.3% in April, a sharp drop from March’s revised 7.6%. This highlights ongoing volatility and challenges in the manufacturing sector. Orders for Nondefense Capital Goods excluding Aircraft also decreased to -1.3% in April, reflecting weaker business investment. Additionally, Durable Goods Orders excluding Defense plummeted to -7.5% in April from the previous month’s revised 10.5%, further exposing the challenges faced by the manufacturing industry. These figures altogether present a mixed economic outlook, with certain areas showing slight improvements while others, particularly those related to capital expenditure and durable goods, face downturns.

Considering the effect on the USDCAD pair, the recent economic revelations, primarily the negative sentiment from decreased capital goods and durable orders, might add some pressure on the US Dollar. However, these movements were already reflected in the currency pair’s behavior, with USDCAD slightly rising by 0.18% to 1.38321, remaining in a consolidation phase. This suggests investors may have anticipated these results, thus assuming a sort of wait-and-see approach. Upcoming announcements like the U.S. GDP annual rate and the Canadian GDP, set for later this week, could significantly influence the USDCAD direction. Should U.S. economic data further disappoint, the Canadian dollar could strengthen against the USD if Canada’s metrics demonstrate resilience or exceed expectations. Conversely, if U.S. GDP data is stronger than Canada’s, it may bolster the dollar, leading to a potential increase in USDCAD. Each scenario will heavily depend on how these figures compare to market expectations and perceived relative economic robustness between the two nations.

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What can we expect from USDCAD today?

USDCAD on Wednesday rose 0.18% to 1.38321. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising.

Updated daily direction for USDCAD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 1.38046 (S1).

Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 1.38444 or trades above daily pivot 1.38245. Break above could target R1 at 1.3852. While to the downside, we are looking at 1.38046 (S1) and daily low of 1.37970 as support levels. USDCAD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 1.38444 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.

For the week to-date, take note that USDCAD is mixed as compared to the prior week.

Key levels to watch out:

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