Audusd rises as us economic concerns persist, australia shows stability

AUDUSD Analysis

Performance after Thursday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Thursday	0.31%	20 Pips
Week to-date	-0.77%	-50 Pips
May	0.69%	44.1 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Fri 02:30 AM AUD Retail Trade Turnover (seasonally adjusted) (1-mth)
Fri 01:30 PM USD PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy (12-mth)

What happened lately

In the United States, recent economic data indicates areas of concern alongside some stability. The Pending Home Sales for April 2025 substantially decreased by -6.3%, reflecting potential weaknesses or slowdowns in the housing market. This follows a revised gain of 6.1% in March, highlighting the volatility within the sector. Additionally, Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims have risen to 240K from a revised figure of 226K, indicating a slight increase in unemployment claims. However, there are signs of stabilization elsewhere. The U.S. GDP annual rate in the initial Q1 2025 estimate revealed a marginal improvement to -0.2% from -0.3% in Q4. Nonetheless, the change is relatively minor and suggests ongoing economic challenges. The flash estimate for U.S. PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) excluding food and energy prices decreased slightly to 3.4% in Q1 from 3.5% in Q4, reflecting mild disinflationary pressures. Both the GDP Price Index and the PCE Price, which remained at 3.7% and 3.6% respectively, illustrate stability in price levels over the quarter.

In Australia, the economic data revealed slight improvements and stability. The private new capital expenditure for Q1 2025 improved marginally to -0.1% from -0.2% in the preceding quarter, indicating a slow but positive trend in business investment. Meanwhile, the Monthly CPI (Consumer Price Index) Indicator remained unchanged at 2.4% in April 2025, indicating consistent consumer price levels and potential easing of inflationary pressures.

The recent economic data releases from both the U.S. and Australia can have implications for the AUDUSD exchange rate. The rise in U.S. unemployment claims and the decrease in pending home sales might negatively impact U.S. economic sentiment, whereas the slight improvements in GDP and stable inflation may provide a counterbalance. For Australia, the steadiness in the CPI and slight improvement in capital expenditure could foster greater economic confidence. Overall, the AUDUSD saw a 0.31% increase to 0.64420 on Thursday, reflecting market consolidation. As upcoming high-impact events approach, including Australia’s Retail Trade Turnover and the U.S. PCE Price Index data, traders may observe increased volatility depending on how these figures compare to market expectations. While the pair currently remains in consolidation, further data may drive significant movements in either direction.

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What can we expect from AUDUSD today?

AUDUSD on Thursday rose 0.31% to 0.64420. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling.

Updated daily direction for AUDUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 0.64124 (S1).

Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 0.64601 or trades above daily pivot 0.64363. Break above could target R1 at 0.64658. While to the downside, we are looking at 0.64124 (S1) and daily low of 0.64067 as support levels. AUDUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 0.64601 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.

For the week to-date, take note that AUDUSD is mixed as compared to the prior week.

Key levels to watch out:

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