Euro rises as US economic data shows mixed results and Germany reports stable unemployment rate

EURUSD Analysis

Performance after Thursday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Thursday	0.68%	76.5 Pips
Week to-date	0.09%	10.4 Pips
May	0.4%	45.7 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Fri 01:30 PM USD PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy (12-mth)

What happened lately

The economic data for the United States in April 2025 shows a decrease in pending home sales, dropping to -6.3% from an upwardly revised figure of 6.1% in March. Meanwhile, the U.S. labor market witnessed an increase in initial unemployment insurance claims, reaching 240,000 during the week ending on 24 May from a previous revised figure of 226,000. The GDP annual rate in the flash estimate for the first quarter of 2025 slightly improved to -0.2%, an increase from the previous quarter’s -0.3%. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), excluding food and energy prices for Q1 2025, slightly decreased to 3.4% from 3.5% in the previous quarter. In contrast, the GDP Price Index for Q1 2025 held steady at 3.7%, with the PCE Price Index also remaining unchanged at 3.6% compared to Q4.

In Germany, the unemployment rate stayed consistent at 6.3% in April 2025, mirroring the rate from March. However, the unemployment change increased to 34,000 from 4,000 in the previous month, indicating potential rising challenges in the labor market despite a stable unemployment rate.

The effect of these economic indicators on the EURUSD currency pair can be interpreted through the lens of economic performance and investor sentiment. With the U.S. displaying weaker pending home sales and an uptick in unemployment claims, combined with unchanged inflation rates, the data suggests a mixed economic backdrop for the U.S. economy. Conversely, a stable unemployment rate in Germany paired with an increased number of unemployed individuals paints a slightly concerning picture for Germany’s labor market. Despite these variables, EURUSD rose by 0.68% to 1.13690 on Thursday, indicating renewed interest or optimism towards the euro relative to the dollar. This movement might be driven by the anticipation of future economic developments or policies, such as the upcoming release of the U.S. PCE Price Index. Investors might perceive current U.S. economic signals as a catalyst for a weaker dollar in the near term, prompting a rise in EURUSD.

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What can we expect from EURUSD today?

EURUSD on Thursday rose 0.68% to 1.13690. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising.

Updated daily direction for EURUSD looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Thursday trading session.

Looking ahead for the day, immediate upside resistance level is R1 at 1.14324 with break above could target R2 at 1.14958 or figure level area. While towards the downside, we are looking at daily low of 1.12098 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 1.13845 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.

For the week to-date, take note that EURUSD is mixed as compared to the prior week.

Key levels to watch out:

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