Usdchf declines due to mixed economic data from us and switzerland

USDCHF Analysis

Performance after Thursday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Thursday	-0.6%	-49.3 Pips
Week to-date	0.23%	19 Pips
May	-0.35%	-28.8 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Fri 01:30 PM USD PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy (12-mth)

What happened lately

In the United States, the economic indicators for April and Q1 2025 present mixed outcomes. U.S. pending home sales dramatically decreased by 6.3% in April, a significant drop from March’s revised figure of a 6.1% increase. This decline indicates potential cooling in the housing market, which could be a result of higher mortgage rates or economic uncertainty. Initial unemployment claims have risen to 240,000, suggesting some softening in the labor market which might lead to concerns about the stability of employment. The first-quarter GDP annual rate slightly improved from -0.3% to -0.2%, indicating marginal improvement in economic growth but still reflecting a contraction. Consumer spending, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) excluding food and energy, modestly declined to 3.4% from 3.5%, while the GDP Price Index remained steady at 3.7%. Overall, these economic indicators portray a sluggish economy with persistent inflationary pressures, necessitating close monitoring of policy measures.

In Switzerland, there is a positive shift in market sentiment according to the Switzerland ZEW Financial Market Survey. In May 2025, the indicator improved to -22 points compared to -51.6 points in April, which suggests a reduction in pessimism among financial market experts regarding the economic outlook. Such an improvement could signal strengthening economic confidence, potentially leading to better economic performance in the near future.

The news about both the U.S. and Swiss economic data had a palpable impact on the USDCHF exchange rate, which fell by 0.6% to 0.82174. In terms of the U.S. dollar, the negative surprises in the pending home sales and increased unemployment claims could undermine confidence in the economic recovery, putting downward pressure on the dollar. Conversely, the improved sentiment in the Swiss economy evidenced by the ZEW survey likely bolstered the Swiss franc. The combination of weaker U.S. data and improved Swiss outlook would thus support the appreciation of the Swiss franc against the U.S. dollar, explaining the decline in USDCHF. Upcoming economic data such as the U.S. PCE Price Index could further influence the exchange rate based on its outcomes, as it is highly significant for gauging inflation trends and potential monetary policy responses.

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What can we expect from USDCHF today?

USDCHF on Thursday dropped -0.6% to 0.82174. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling.

Updated daily direction for USDCHF looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Thursday trading session.

Looking ahead for the day, immediate support level is at S1 0.81691 with break below could see further selling pressure towards S2 at 0.81207. To the upside, with the current momentum bearish, we prefer to look at breakout of the recent daily high of 0.83476 as a potential indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below 0.82100 would indicate selling pressure.

For the week to-date, take note that USDCHF is mixed as compared to the prior week.

Key levels to watch out:

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