USDCAD Analysis
| Performance after Tuesday | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Tuesday | 0.05% | 7 Pips |  |
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| Week to-date | -0.16% | -22 Pips |  |
||
| June | -0.16% | -22 Pips | |
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Upcoming key events (London Time)
Wed 02:45 PM CAD Bank of Canada Policy Interest Rate
What happened lately
In April 2025, new orders for manufactured goods in the United States saw a notable decrease of 3.7%, following a reduction of 3.4% in March, as reported by the Census Bureau. This consecutive decline indicates a slowdown in manufacturing activity, potentially reflecting challenges in demand or disruptions in the supply chain. However, the U.S. labor market remains robust, with the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) reporting an increase in job openings to 7.391 million in April, up from the revised 7.2 million in March. This rise in job openings suggests a continued demand for labor, indicating strength in certain sectors despite the manufacturing downturn.
Regarding Canada, a high-impact event is on the horizon with the Bank of Canada set to announce its policy interest rate. This event will be closely monitored as it could influence the Canadian economy’s trajectory and affect the USD/CAD exchange rate depending on whether the bank decides to maintain, cut, or hike interest rates. The decision will likely reflect current economic conditions, including inflationary pressures and growth prospects.
The recent developments in both the U.S. and Canadian economies could have varying impacts on the USD/CAD. The decrease in U.S. manufacturing orders might weaken the U.S. dollar slightly as it suggests slowing economic activity. However, the strength in the job market could counterbalance this by supporting the currency. The USD/CAD exchange rate saw a slight increase of 0.05% on a recent trading day, rising to 1.37180, reflecting consolidation as the market awaits upcoming events, notably the Bank of Canada’s policy interest rate decision. Depending on the outcome, the Canadian dollar could either strengthen, leading to a potential drop in USD/CAD, or weaken if the decision disappoints market expectations. Ultimately, market participants will closely watch both U.S. economic signals and Canadian monetary policy to navigate the USD/CAD’s movement.
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What can we expect from USDCAD today?
USDCAD on Tuesday rose 0.05% to 1.37180. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling.
Updated daily direction for USDCAD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 1.3695 (S1).
Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 1.37430 or trades above daily pivot 1.3719. Break above could target R1 at 1.3742. While to the downside, we are looking at 1.3695 (S1) and daily low of 1.36960 as support levels. USDCAD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 1.37430 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.
For the week to-date, take note that USDCAD is mixed as compared to the prior week.
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 1.3789 |
| R2 | 1.3766 |
| R1 | 1.3742 |
| Daily Pivot | 1.3719 |
| S1 | 1.3695 |
| S2 | 1.3672 |
| S3 | 1.3648 |
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