Audusd rises as Australia shows stagnant GDP growth and mixed US economic data

AUDUSD Analysis

Performance after Wednesday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Wednesday	0.38%	24.4 Pips
Week to-date	0.98%	63 Pips
June	0.98%	63 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Thu 02:30 AM AUD International Trade in Goods (1-mth)
Fri 01:30 PM USD Nonfarm Payroll Employment

What happened lately

In Australia, the GDP growth rate for the year ending in Q1 2025 remained constant at 1.3% compared to the previous quarter, indicating stagnant economic expansion according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. However, the quarterly GDP growth for Q1 2025 declined significantly to 0.2% from 0.6% in Q4, showcasing a slowdown in economic activities. The AiG Industry Index saw an improvement in April 2025, rising to -12.3 points from -15 points in March. Despite remaining in negative territory, this improvement suggests partial recovery or stabilization in the industrial sector.

In the United States, economic indicators display mixed signals. The Census Bureau reported that new orders for manufactured goods dropped by 3.7% in April 2025, extending the downward trajectory from a revised 3.4% in March. This decline suggests a potential weakening in the manufacturing sector. Conversely, the U.S. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) highlighted an increase in job openings to 7.391 million in April, an uptick from the revised figures of 7.2 million in March, which is an indicator of a robust labor market. This job market resilience might counterbalance other economic soft spots.

The AUD/USD currency pair experienced a positive uptick of 0.38%, settling at 0.64875 recently. The combined implication of Australia’s stagnant GDP growth and slight improvement in industrial performance alongside the U.S.’s mixed economic data may lead to cautious optimism for the Australian dollar. The market seems to be in consolidation mode, with investors waiting for upcoming high-impact events, such as Australia’s International Trade in Goods data and the U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment report. These upcoming economic reports will play critical roles in providing further directionality for the AUD/USD pair. Improved trade data from Australia could offer support for the AUD, while stronger U.S. payroll data might reinforce the USD, thereby increasing the volatility and movement in the currency pair.

Latest from X (Twitter)

Tweets by Australian Bureau of Statistics

What can we expect from AUDUSD today?

AUDUSD on Wednesday rose 0.38% to 0.64875. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising.

Updated daily direction for AUDUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 0.64567 (S1).

Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 0.65050 or trades above daily pivot 0.64809. Break above could target R1 at 0.65116. While to the downside, we are looking at 0.64567 (S1) and daily low of 0.64501 as support levels. AUDUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 0.65050 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.

For the week to-date, take note that AUDUSD is mixed as compared to the prior week.

Key levels to watch out:

#AUDUSD Trending on Twitter

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