Eurusd rises amid mixed economic signals from the US and euro area

EURUSD Analysis

Performance after Wednesday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Wednesday	0.36%	40.7 Pips
Week to-date	0.67%	76 Pips
June	0.67%	76 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Thu 01:15 PM EUR ECB Interest Rate on main refinancing operations (MRO)
Thu 01:15 PM EUR ECB Interest Rate on deposit facility
Fri 10:00 AM EUR GDP (seasonally adjusted) (3-mth)
Fri 01:30 PM USD Nonfarm Payroll Employment

What happened lately

In the United States, economic indicators for April 2025 showed mixed signals. New orders for manufactured goods registered a decline, falling 3.7%, compared to a 3.4% decrease in March, according to the Census Bureau. This suggests a slowdown in manufacturing demand and potential concerns over the economic growth trajectory. Contrasting with this negative data, the U.S. Labor Market exhibited signs of robust activity as job openings under the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) increased to 7.391 million from the revised 7.2 million in March. This uptick implies continued demand for labor, reflecting underlying strength in the labor market despite other economic headwinds.

In the Euro Area, the economic data for May 2025 indicated moderation in inflationary pressures. The flash estimates for the Euro Area Core Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) showed a slowdown, with an annual rate dropping to 2.3% from 2.7% and the 1-month measure falling to 0% from 1% in April, as per Eurostat. The Euro Area Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) also experienced a decline to 1.9% from 2.2% annually, and a complete halt to 0% on a monthly basis. This deceleration in inflation reflects easing price pressures, which could influence the European Central Bank’s monetary policy decisions. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate decreased slightly from 6.3% to 6.2% in April, indicating some labor market resilience.

Regarding the EURUSD pair, the euro appreciated by 0.36% to reach 1.14157 against the dollar. This movement may have been influenced by the differing economic conditions in the U.S. and the Euro Area. The strength in the U.S. labor market contrasted with a decline in manufacturing; meanwhile, easing inflation in the Euro Area might create expectations of more supportive monetary policy from the European Central Bank. Looking ahead, high-impact events, such as the ECB’s rate decisions and Euro Area GDP data, will likely provide further direction for the EURUSD. Additionally, U.S. nonfarm payroll data will be pivotal in assessing the labor market’s health, impacting the dollar’s strength and informing the currency pair’s movement. In this environment of mixed signals, the EURUSD may experience increased volatility, hinging on the outcomes of these key economic events.

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What can we expect from EURUSD today?

EURUSD on Wednesday rose 0.36% to 1.14157. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling.

Updated daily direction for EURUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 1.13701 (S1).

Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 1.14344 or trades above daily pivot 1.14023. Break above could target R1 at 1.14478. While to the downside, we are looking at 1.13701 (S1) and daily low of 1.13567 as support levels. EURUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 1.14344 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.

For the week to-date, take note that EURUSD is bullish as the pair continued to trade higher and is up by 0.67% over the past few days.

Key levels to watch out:

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