USDCAD Analysis
| Performance after Wednesday | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Wednesday | -0.34% | -46.9 Pips |  |
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| Week to-date | -0.49% | -67 Pips | |
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| June | -0.49% | -67 Pips |  |
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Upcoming key events (London Time)
Fri 01:30 PM CAD Labour Force Net Change in Employment
Fri 01:30 PM USD Nonfarm Payroll Employment
What happened lately
In Canada, the Bank of Canada has maintained its policy interest rate at 2.75%, consistent with the previous rate. This decision suggests a cautious approach amid economic uncertainties, aiming to support economic stability while monitoring inflation dynamics. Stable interest rates can provide predictability in borrowing costs, encouraging investment and consumer confidence. The central bank’s stance indicates a balance between fostering growth and preventing overheating in the economy.
In the United States, April 2025 brought a decrease in new orders for manufactured goods, which fell by 3.7%, highlighting a slowdown in industrial activity. This decline follows a revised 3.4% decrease in March, suggesting ongoing challenges in the manufacturing sector. Conversely, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report showed an increase in job openings to 7.391 million in April, up from 7.2 million in March. This rise in job openings points to a robust labor market, potentially offsetting some concerns arising from the manufacturing sector’s weakness. These mixed signals portray a US economy that is experiencing sector-specific weaknesses but maintains overall labor market strength.
The recent drop in the USDCAD exchange rate, with the pair depreciating by 0.34% to 1.36711, can be attributed to various economic indicators. The stability in Canada’s interest rate policy, coupled with the challenges in the US manufacturing sector, may have strengthened the Canadian dollar relative to the US dollar. The rise in US job openings indicates a strong labor market, which could eventually support the US dollar; however, the upcoming labor force changes and nonfarm payroll data will be crucial in determining the economic outlook and potential currency movements. Both countries have significant employment-related data releases upcoming, which will likely influence USDCAD. If Canada’s employment numbers exceed expectations, it could further bolster the Canadian dollar, while strong US payroll data could support the greenback, thereby influencing the currency pair’s dynamics in the near term.
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What can we expect from USDCAD today?
USDCAD on Wednesday dropped -0.34% to 1.36711. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling.
Updated daily direction for USDCAD looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Wednesday trading session.
Looking ahead for the day, immediate support level is at S1 1.36355 with break below could see further selling pressure towards S2 at 1.36. To the upside, with the current momentum bearish, we prefer to look at breakout of the recent daily high of 1.37316 as a potential indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below 1.36480 would indicate selling pressure.
For the week to-date, take note that USDCAD is bearish as the pair posted lower by -0.49%.
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 1.38027 |
| R2 | 1.37672 |
| R1 | 1.37191 |
| Daily Pivot | 1.36836 |
| S1 | 1.36355 |
| S2 | 1.36 |
| S3 | 1.35519 |
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