USDCHF Analysis
| Performance after Wednesday | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Wednesday | -0.66% | -54.5 Pips |  |
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| Week to-date | -0.53% | -43.6 Pips |  |
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| June | -0.53% | -43.6 Pips | |
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Upcoming key events (London Time)
Fri 01:30 PM USD Nonfarm Payroll Employment
What happened lately
In April 2025, the United States saw a decrease in new orders for manufactured goods by 3.7%, down from a revised figure of 3.4% in March, as reported by the Census Bureau. This decline suggests a weakening demand within the manufacturing sector, which may pressure domestic growth and potentially influence employment figures. Meanwhile, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed a positive development with an increase in job openings to 7.391 million in April 2025, up from a revised figure of 7.2 million in March. This increase indicates a strong labor market, as companies are looking to hire more employees, possibly leading to improved consumer confidence and spending.
In Switzerland, May 2025 brought a slight shift in the inflation dynamics. The Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) Inflation Rate over a 12-month period decreased to -0.1% from 0% in April. However, the monthly CPI Inflation Rate for May rose to 0.1% from April’s 0%, suggesting some inflationary pressure might be returning. This nuanced inflation scenario indicates deflationary pressure on an annual basis but a hint of emerging price increases on a monthly scale due to changes in consumer behavior or cost inputs. These conditions might not prompt immediate responses from the Swiss National Bank but are indicative of the economy’s current state of price stability.
The recent decrease of 0.66% in the USDCHF exchange rate to 0.81779 reflects investor sentiment and market reactions to economic conditions. With the U.S. seeing a decline in manufacturing orders yet an increase in job openings, mixed signals are sent regarding the economic strength and the dollar’s valuation. The upcoming U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment report is a critical event that could further impact USDCHF dynamics. Should the report show robust employment figures, it may strengthen the U.S. dollar, potentially reversing recent declines against the Swiss franc. However, if results fall short of expectations, the USD might weaken further, especially if coupled with uncertainties surrounding U.S. manufacturing sectors. The Swiss franc remains stable, with minimal inflationary pressures, hence maintaining its safe-haven appeal amidst global economic fluctuations.
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What can we expect from USDCHF today?
USDCHF on Wednesday dropped -0.66% to 0.81779. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising.
Updated daily direction for USDCHF looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 0.81486 (S1).
Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 0.82499 or trades above daily pivot 0.81992. Break above could target R1 at 0.82286. While to the downside, we are looking at 0.81486 (S1) and daily low of 0.81699 as support levels. USDCHF need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below 0.81699 would indicate selling pressure.
For the week to-date, take note that USDCHF is bearish as the pair posted lower by -0.53%.
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 0.83086 |
| R2 | 0.82792 |
| R1 | 0.82286 |
| Daily Pivot | 0.81992 |
| S1 | 0.81486 |
| S2 | 0.81192 |
| S3 | 0.80686 |
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