Audusd rises amid mixed economic data and consolidation trends

AUDUSD Analysis

Performance after Thursday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Thursday	0.21%	13.8 Pips
Week to-date	1.2%	77 Pips
June	1.2%	77 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Fri 01:30 PM USD Nonfarm Payroll Employment

What happened lately

In the United States, the Bureau of Labor Statistics report reveals a rise in Unit Labor Costs to 6.6% in Q1 2025 from 5.7% in Q4 2024, highlighting increased labor expenses. Simultaneously, Nonfarm Business Labor Productivity dropped to -1.5% from -0.8% in the previous quarter, indicating reduced efficiency in output per hour worked. Moreover, the Department of Labor data shows a rise in Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims to 247,000 from a previous 240,000 for the week ending May 31, 2025, suggesting a deterioration in the employment situation.

In Australia, the International Trade in Goods for April 2025 recorded a decrease to 5,413 million from a revised 6,892 million in March, reflecting a concerning contraction in trade balance. Exports decreased significantly by -2.4% from a revised 7.2% indicating less overseas demand for Australian goods, while imports rose to 1.1% from -2.2%, which might reflect increased domestic consumption or dependency on foreign goods. Additionally, Australia’s GDP for Q1 2025 declined to 0.2% from 0.6% in Q4 2024, while the annual GDP growth rate remained at 1.3% from Q4 2024, indicating a stagnating economy. The Australia AiG Industry Index improved slightly to -12.3 points in April 2025 from -15 points in March, suggesting modest recovery in the industry’s health.

This mixed economic data will likely have varying effects on the AUDUSD currency pair. The rise in U.S. Unit Labor Costs alongside decreasing productivity and increasing unemployment claims might impose negative sentiment on the U.S. economy, which typically weakens the U.S. dollar. Conversely, Australia’s economic indicators depict a decline in GDP and exports with improvements in trade balance and industrial health. The persistence of Australia’s economic challenges may hinder the strength of the Australian dollar. Despite the AUDUSD rising 0.21% to 0.65013, investors might remain cautious, keeping the pair in consolidation, awaiting clearer economic signals or upcoming high-impact events such as the U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment report. Consequently, expectations about monetary policies and economic revitalization measures will likely sway the currency movements in the future.

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What can we expect from AUDUSD today?

AUDUSD on Thursday rose 0.21% to 0.65013. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising.

Updated daily direction for AUDUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 0.64785 (S1).

Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 0.65380 or trades above daily pivot 0.65083. Break above could target R1 at 0.6531. While to the downside, we are looking at 0.64785 (S1) and daily low of 0.64855 as support levels. AUDUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 0.65380 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.

For the week to-date, take note that AUDUSD is mixed as compared to the prior week.

Key levels to watch out:

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