Gbpusd rises amid mixed US economic data and consolidation concerns

GBPUSD Analysis

Performance after Thursday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Thursday	0.22%	29.2 Pips
Week to-date	0.94%	126.7 Pips
June	0.94%	126.7 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Fri 01:30 PM USD Nonfarm Payroll Employment

What happened lately

In the United States, key economic indicators have shown a mixed bag of results for the first quarter of 2025. U.S. Unit Labor Costs saw a rise to 6.6% in Q1 2025, an increase from 5.7% in the previous quarter, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This rise indicates that the cost of labor per unit of output is increasing, which could lead to higher inflation if businesses pass on these costs to consumers. On the productivity front, U.S. Nonfarm Business Labor Productivity saw a decline, dropping to -1.5% from -0.8% in Q4 2024. Decreasing productivity coupled with rising labor costs could suggest greater inefficiencies within the economy, potentially hurting profit margins. Additionally, the U.S. Department of Labor reported an increase in Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims, which rose to 247K in the week ending 31 May from a revised figure of 239K. The increase in claims indicates a slightly weakening labor market, which is a concern considering the rising labor costs and plummeting productivity.

The impact of the mixed U.S. economic data is reflected in the performance of the GBPUSD currency pair. On Thursday, the pair rose by 0.22% to 1.35748, indicating some consolidation in the market. The rise in GBPUSD signifies that the British Pound gained strength against the U.S. Dollar, which might be attributed to the weaker U.S. economic data. Investors could be anticipating the Federal Reserve to adopt a cautious approach towards any monetary tightening, considering the signs of an easing labor market and productivity challenges. However, the impending Nonfarm Payroll Employment report looms large and could shift market momentum significantly. Should the report show strong employment numbers, it might strengthen the dollar, pressuring GBPUSD. Conversely, weaker-than-expected payroll data would likely enhance the pound’s position, maintaining upward pressure on the pair. As the economic landscape evolves, traders will be closely monitoring how the Federal Reserve balances the dual challenges of rising unit labor costs and declining productivity with broader economic growth objectives.

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What can we expect from GBPUSD today?

GBPUSD on Thursday rose 0.22% to 1.35748. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising.

Updated daily direction for GBPUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 1.35379 (S1).

Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 1.36162 or trades above daily pivot 1.35771. Break above could target R1 at 1.36139. While to the downside, we are looking at 1.35379 (S1) and daily low of 1.35402 as support levels. GBPUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 1.36162 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.

For the week to-date, take note that GBPUSD is mixed as compared to the prior week.

Key levels to watch out:

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