USDJPY Analysis
| Performance after Thursday | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Thursday | 0.54% | 76.6 Pips |  |
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| Week to-date | -0.36% | -51.9 Pips |  |
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| June | -0.37% | -52.8 Pips | |
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Upcoming key events (London Time)
Fri 01:30 PM USD Nonfarm Payroll Employment
What happened lately
In the United States, recent data reveals a mixed economic picture. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a rise in Unit Labor Costs to 6.6% in the first quarter of 2025, up from 5.7% in the prior quarter. This increase suggests rising costs for employers in terms of wages and other labor-related expenses, which could potentially lead to inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, U.S. Nonfarm Business Labor Productivity experienced a further decline, registering -1.5% in Q1 2025, compared to -0.8% in Q4 2024, indicating a drop in output efficiency per hour worked. Additionally, the Department of Labor highlighted an increase in Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims, which rose to 247K for the week ending 31 May, slightly up from a previous week’s revised figure of 239K. These data points suggest some pressure in the labor market, with increasing labor costs and declining productivity.
In Japan, the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare reported a positive change in the labor market, with Total Cash Earnings increasing to 2.3% on a 12-month basis in April 2025, up from 2.1% in the previous month. This rise in wages is a positive indicator for consumer spending as increased earnings generally lead to enhanced purchasing power among workers.
The currency pair USDJPY saw an upward movement, rising by 0.54% to 143.50. The weakening U.S. productivity and the increase in labor costs may put pressure on the U.S. dollar in the near term as these factors add to inflation concerns, leading to speculation about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions. However, the rise in unemployment claims can add to a mixed outlook, potentially dampening aggressive rate hikes. Conversely, the increase in Japan’s cash earnings strengthens domestic consumption prospects, possibly providing support for the yen. In the short term, USDJPY could experience volatility, particularly as markets await critical data such as the U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment report, which is a high-impact contributor to market sentiment. Strong payroll numbers could bolster the dollar, whereas weaker figures might weaken it against the yen.
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What can we expect from USDJPY today?
USDJPY on Thursday rose 0.54% to 143.50. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising.
Updated daily direction for USDJPY looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 142.69 (S1).
Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 143.98 or trades above daily pivot 143.33. While to the downside, the daily low of 142.52 and 142.69 (S1) as immediate support levels. USDJPY need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 143.98 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.
For the week to-date, take note that USDJPY is mixed as compared to prior week.
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 145.6 |
| R2 | 144.79 |
| R1 | 144.14 |
| Daily Pivot | 143.33 |
| S1 | 142.69 |
| S2 | 141.88 |
| S3 | 141.23 |