Usdchf pair in consolidation amid mixed signals from US labor market data

USDCHF Analysis

Performance after Thursday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Thursday	0.11%	9 Pips
Week to-date	-0.31%	-25.6 Pips
June	-0.31%	-25.6 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Fri 01:30 PM USD Nonfarm Payroll Employment

What happened lately

The recent economic data from the United States highlights a few key trends that may impact the country’s labor market and monetary policy decisions. First, U.S. Unit Labor Costs have climbed to 6.6% in the first quarter of 2025, an increase from 5.7% in the last quarter of 2024. This rise indicates that businesses are spending more on labor, which could put upward pressure on inflation as companies may pass these costs onto consumers through higher prices. In contrast, U.S. Nonfarm Business Labor Productivity has declined further to -1.5%, deteriorating from -0.8% in the previous quarter. A decrease in productivity implies that output per hour worked is falling, which could weaken economic growth prospects. Additionally, U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims saw an uptick to 247,000 in the week ending 31 May, increasing from a revised figure of 239,000 in the previous week. This rise signals potential weakness in the labor market as more individuals are seeking unemployment benefits.

The developments in the U.S. labor market, especially the rising unit labor costs and declining productivity, provide mixed signals for the USDCHF currency pair. These economic indicators suggest possible inflationary pressures due to increased labor costs, which might prompt the Federal Reserve to take a more hawkish stance by raising interest rates to combat inflation. Higher interest rates could strengthen the US dollar against the Swiss franc. However, the increase in unemployment claims could counterbalance this effect by indicating potential economic weakness, which might discourage aggressive monetary tightening. As a result, the USDCHF might remain in consolidation, reflecting uncertainty in the market as traders await further data, such as the upcoming Nonfarm Payroll Employment report, to assess the overall economic trajectory of the U.S.

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What can we expect from USDCHF today?

USDCHF on Thursday rose 0.11% to 0.81869. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising.

Updated daily direction for USDCHF looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 0.81673 (S1).

Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 0.82148 or trades above daily pivot 0.81911. Break above could target R1 at 0.82106. While to the downside, we are looking at 0.81673 (S1) and daily low of 0.81715 as support levels. USDCHF need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 0.82148 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.

For the week to-date, take note that USDCHF is mixed as compared to the prior week.

Key levels to watch out:

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