Audusd rises amid mixed economic signals from the US and Australia

AUDUSD Analysis

Performance after Thursday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Thursday	0.43%	27.9 Pips
Week to-date	0.62%	40 Pips
June	1.55%	100 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Fri 03:00 PM USD Index of Consumer Sentiment

What happened lately

In the United States, economic data for May 2025 reveals some mixed signals. The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a modest increase of 0.1% following a decline in the previous month. When excluding food and energy sectors, the PPI also reflected a rise of 0.1%. However, notably, the overall PPI for the year slowed slightly to 2.6% from a revised 2.5%. On the employment front, initial unemployment insurance claims remained stable at 248,000. Meanwhile, the monthly Treasury Budget statement showed a significant fall to -$316 billion, a substantial drop from $258 billion in April. Inflation metrics indicate increasing pressures; the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate ticked up to 2.4%, while the rate excluding food and energy remained at a steady 2.8%. Nevertheless, the month-over-month CPI inflation rate excluding these sectors showed deceleration, dropping to 0.1% from 0.2% in April.

In Australia, the Survey of Consumer Inflationary Expectations rose sharply in June 2025 to 5% from 4.1% in the preceding month. This suggests that consumers anticipate higher inflation, possibly due to various internal and external economic pressures affecting the country’s outlook.

The recent economic news from the United States and Australia may impact the AUDUSD currency pair. The modest rise in the U.S.’s PPI in May could imply mild inflationary pressures, creating an expectation of potential hawkish measures from the Federal Reserve, though tempered by increased CPI and stable unemployment claims indicating a mixed economic landscape. Meanwhile, Australia’s sharp increase in consumer inflation expectations may lead to anticipation of policy measures by the Reserve Bank of Australia to address inflation concerns. Overall, the results point towards a complex interplay that could influence the AUDUSD exchange rate. The USD’s reactions are further influenced by upcoming data releases, such as the Index of Consumer Sentiment, which could add volatility. Given these dynamics, the AUDUSD pair, which rose by 0.43% to 0.65283, might experience further consolidative behavior as markets digest these developments and await further data. Investors will closely monitor economic indicators to gauge the potential policy responses from central banks, which will affect future trends in the pair.

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What can we expect from AUDUSD today?

AUDUSD on Thursday rose 0.43% to 0.65283. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling.

Updated daily direction for AUDUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 0.64922 (S1).

Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 0.65336 or trades above daily pivot 0.65129. Break above could target R1 at 0.6549. While to the downside, we are looking at 0.64922 (S1) and daily low of 0.64768 as support levels. AUDUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 0.65336 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.

For the week to-date, take note that AUDUSD is mixed as compared to the prior week.

Key levels to watch out:

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