Mixed US economic signals influence EURUSD increase on Thursday

EURUSD Analysis

Performance after Thursday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Thursday	0.87%	100.2 Pips
Week to-date	1.74%	198.5 Pips
June	2.18%	247 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Fri 07:00 AM EUR Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) (12-mth)
Fri 03:00 PM USD Index of Consumer Sentiment

What happened lately

In May 2025, economic indicators in the United States presented a mixed picture. The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a modest increase of 0.1%, rebounding from a previous decline of 0.5% in April. The core PPI, excluding food and energy, also rose by 0.1%, marking an improvement from the revised April figure of -0.2%. However, the annual PPI excluding food and energy saw a decrease to 3% from a revised 3.2%, indicating slower growth in this category over the year. Moreover, the overall annual PPI declined to 2.6% from the previously revised 2.5%, suggesting a slight deceleration in wholesale price pressures.

Unemployment claims in the U.S. remained unchanged at 248,000 for the week ending 07 June, reflecting stability in the job market. Meanwhile, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed an increase in the overall inflation rate to 2.4% in May from 2.3% in April, while the monthly CPI inflation slipped to 0.1% from 0.2% in April, both indicative of controlled inflationary pressures. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, remained steady at 2.8% annually but decreased slightly on a monthly basis to 0.1% from 0.2%. Additionally, the U.S. Monthly Treasury Budget Statement showed a substantial deficit of $316 compared to a previous surplus, indicating higher government spending or lower revenue intake in May.

These mixed signals in the U.S. economy have implications for the EURUSD pair. The increase in CPI reflects rising inflation, which may pressurize the Federal Reserve to consider monetary tightening if sustained. However, the stable core CPI and unchanged unemployment claims offset expectations of aggressive policy changes. The PPI figures suggest moderate inflation pressures on the wholesale level, which may not trigger significant changes in interest rates. The large fiscal deficit could weaken the dollar due to concerns about fiscal soundness. Given these dynamics, the recent 0.87% increase in EURUSD is plausible as traders might anticipate a less hawkish stance from the Fed compared to the European Central Bank, which could remain focused on maintaining inflation within its target range. Future movements will likely hinge on the upcoming Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices in the Eurozone and the U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index, influencing expectations for both economies.

Latest from X (Twitter)

Tweets by Eurostat

What can we expect from EURUSD today?

EURUSD on Thursday rose 0.87% to 1.15879. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising.

Updated daily direction for EURUSD looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Thursday trading session.

Looking ahead for the day, immediate upside resistance level is R1 at 1.16508 with break above could target R2 at 1.17138 or figure level area. While towards the downside, we are looking at daily low of 1.14857 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 1.16312 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.

For the week to-date, take note that EURUSD is bullish as the pair continued to trade higher and is up by 1.74% over the past few days.

Key levels to watch out:

#EURUSD Trending on Twitter

[custom-twitter-feeds hashtag=”#EURUSD” num=3 showheader=false]