USDCHF Analysis
| Performance after Thursday | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Thursday | -1.19% | -97.9 Pips |  |
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| Week to-date | -1.42% | -116.6 Pips | |
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| June | -1.44% | -118.6 Pips |  |
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Upcoming key events (London Time)
Fri 03:00 PM USD Index of Consumer Sentiment
What happened lately
In the United States, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for May 2025 exhibited a modest increase of 0.1%, recovering from a previous decline of 0.5% in April. This upward movement is consistent across both the overall PPI and the PPI excluding Food and Energy sectors, signaling a slight recovery in producer prices. The year-over-year PPI saw a decline to 2.6% from the revised figure of 2.5%, whereas the PPI excluding Food and Energy sectors reduced to 3% from a revised 3.2%. Initial Unemployment Claims remained unchanged at 248K, indicating stability in the labor market. Meanwhile, the U.S. CPI inflation for May rose to 2.4% from 2.3% in April, with the core CPI inflation rate excluding Food and Energy remaining steady at 2.8%. Month-over-month CPI, however, showed a decline from 0.2% in April to 0.1% in May. Adding to the financial concerns, the Monthly Treasury Budget Statement for May dipped notably to -316$, compared to 258$ in April.
The recent economic data from the U.S. presents a mixed picture, combining slight improvements and declines across different indicators. The modest increase in the PPI might suggest a potential upward pressure on production costs, yet the overall inflation remains relatively contained, evidenced by the steady core CPI. The unchanged initial unemployment claims reflect a steady labor market, which could lend some support to economic stability. However, the significant drop in the Monthly Treasury Budget is concerning, as it can complicate fiscal scenarios and potentially influence economic growth or contraction.
The movement in USDCHF with a drop of -1.19% to 0.81019 could be influenced by these economic indicators. Should the modest rebound in the PPI and the steady labor market influence positive sentiment, it might support the USD. However, concerns about budgetary deficits and inflation dynamics might create apprehensions, restraining the USD’s strength against the CHF. Additionally, investors are likely to anticipate upcoming events such as the U.S. Index of Consumer Sentiment to gauge economic outlooks further. If the sentiment index reflects optimism, it might fortify the USD; otherwise, the CHF could continue to show resilience. Overall, the mixed economic indicators imply a cautious stance among investors, wary of ongoing fiscal deficits and varied inflationary signals.
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What can we expect from USDCHF today?
USDCHF on Thursday dropped -1.19% to 0.81019. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling.
Updated daily direction for USDCHF looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Thursday trading session.
Looking ahead for the day, immediate support level is at S1 0.8063 with break below could see further selling pressure towards S2 at 0.80241. To the upside, with the current momentum bearish, we prefer to look at breakout of the recent daily high of 0.82018 as a potential indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below 0.80935 would indicate selling pressure.
For the week to-date, take note that USDCHF is bearish as the pair posted lower by -1.42%.
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 0.82796 |
| R2 | 0.82407 |
| R1 | 0.81713 |
| Daily Pivot | 0.81324 |
| S1 | 0.8063 |
| S2 | 0.80241 |
| S3 | 0.79547 |
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