USDJPY Analysis
| Performance after Thursday | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Thursday | -0.69% | -99.6 Pips |  |
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| Week to-date | -0.98% | -141.5 Pips |  |
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| June | -0.45% | -64.8 Pips | |
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Upcoming key events (London Time)
Fri 03:00 PM USD Index of Consumer Sentiment
What happened lately
In the United States, recent economic data for May 2025 reveals a mixed scenario. The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed an increase of 0.1% after a decline of 0.5% in April, indicating slight upward pressure on wholesale prices. Excluding food and energy, the core PPI also increased by 0.1% from a previous revised figure of -0.2%. The annual PPI, however, saw a slight decrease to 2.6% from the previous 2.5% revised figure, while the 12-month core PPI excluding food and energy decreased to 3% from a revised 3.2%. In terms of inflation, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) saw a monthly increase to 2.4% from 2.3% in April, indicating a slight rise in consumer prices, while core CPI remained steady at 2.8%. Monthly CPI excluding food and energy sectors decreased to 0.1% from 0.2% the previous month. Meanwhile, the Treasury Budget Statement plummeted to a deficit of -316 billion dollars, a significant change from the surplus of 258 billion dollars recorded in April. Initial unemployment claims remained unchanged at 248,000 in early June, suggesting no immediate shift in labor market conditions. This mixed bag of data suggests a slightly increasing trend in inflationary pressures, though offset by weaker fiscal conditions.
For the USDJPY, the currency pair fell by 0.69% to 143.53 on Thursday, a movement likely influenced by the overall economic landscape. The revised data showing moderate increases in both PPI and CPI suggest some inflationary pressures that could impact interest rate expectations. However, the dramatic drop in the Treasury Budget and consistent unemployment claims may be perceived negatively by the markets, indicating potential challenges ahead. These factors together may have contributed to a weaker dollar, impacting its performance against the yen. Investors may await the upcoming release of the USD Index of Consumer Sentiment for further guidance, as this data could impact future monetary policy discussions. Therefore, the current economic data may lead to sustained volatility in USDJPY depending on how market expectations adjust to this news cycle.
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What can we expect from USDJPY today?
USDJPY on Thursday dropped -0.69% to 143.53. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling.
Updated daily direction for USDJPY looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Thursday trading session.
Looking ahead for the day, immediate support level is at 142.97 (S1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 142.4 (S2). To the upside, with the current momentum bearish, we prefer to look at breakout of the recent daily high of 144.53 as a potential indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below 143.18 would indicate selling pressure.
For the week to-date, take note that USDJPY is mixed as compared to prior week.
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 145.67 |
| R2 | 145.1 |
| R1 | 144.32 |
| Daily Pivot | 143.75 |
| S1 | 142.97 |
| S2 | 142.4 |
| S3 | 141.61 |