Eurusd slightly up amid U.S. manufacturing index decline and ahead of key economic events

EURUSD Analysis

Performance after Monday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Monday	0.15%	17.8 Pips
Week to-date	0.11%	12.9 Pips
June	1.87%	212 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Tue 01:30 PM USD Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth)
Wed 07:00 PM USD Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate)
Wed 07:00 PM USD FOMC Economic Projections
Wed 07:00 PM USD Interest Rate Projections

What happened lately

The U.S. New York Empire State Manufacturing Index for June 2025 registered a significant decline, reaching -16 points as compared to the previous month’s -9.2 points. This notable drop highlights a worsening sentiment among manufacturers in the New York region, indicating a potential contraction in manufacturing activity. A negative reading, particularly at this magnitude, can signal challenges in production and employment within the manufacturing sector, potentially affecting broader economic conditions if the trend continues over the upcoming months.

The EUR/USD currency pair experienced a modest increase of 0.15% to 1.15619 despite the weak manufacturing data from the U.S. The pair appears to be in a consolidation phase, exhibiting limited directional bias in the immediate term. Several forthcoming events are likely to heavily influence the pair. Among these are crucial U.S. economic events, including the upcoming release of the Monthly Retail Trade data and the Federal Reserve’s Interest Rate Decision, FOMC Economic Projections, and Interest Rate Projections, all scheduled for the week.

Given the current economic scenario, the dip in the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index may initially exert downward pressure on the U.S. dollar due to perceived economic weaknesses, potentially supporting a further rise in EUR/USD. However, the upcoming high-impact events, particularly the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and economic projections, will play a pivotal role in shaping market expectations around U.S. monetary policy. If the Federal Reserve maintains or raises interest rates, citing inflationary pressures or economic resilience, the dollar may strengthen, potentially causing EUR/USD to decline. Conversely, dovish signals or a hold in rates amidst a deteriorating economic outlook might sustain or even boost the EUR/USD pair.

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What can we expect from EURUSD today?

EURUSD on Monday rose 0.15% to 1.15619. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling.

Updated daily direction for EURUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 1.15186 (S1).

Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 1.16147 or trades above daily pivot 1.15667. Break above could target R1 at 1.16099. While to the downside, we are looking at 1.15186 (S1) and daily low of 1.15234 as support levels. EURUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 1.16147 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.

For the week to-date, take note that EURUSD is mixed as compared to the prior week.

Key levels to watch out:

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