Gbpusd edges higher amid us manufacturing decline and upcoming key economic indicators

GBPUSD Analysis

Performance after Monday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Monday	0.02%	2.8 Pips
Week to-date	0.05%	6.7 Pips
June	0.93%	125.7 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Tue 01:30 PM USD Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth)
Wed 07:00 AM GBP Consumer Prices Index (CPI) (12-mth)
Wed 07:00 PM USD Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate)
Wed 07:00 PM USD FOMC Economic Projections
Wed 07:00 PM USD Interest Rate Projections

What happened lately

The recent economic data from the United States indicates a significant decline in the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index, which fell to -16 points in June 2025, compared to -9.2 points in May. This data, provided by the New York Fed, suggests a substantial decrease in manufacturing activity within the region, reflecting potential challenges or uncertainties facing the manufacturing sector. A lower manufacturing index can signal reduced business activity, which might be due to several factors such as decreasing orders, slower production rates, or economic headwinds that businesses are facing. This downturn could impact economic growth prospects and possibly influence the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions.

Meanwhile, the British pound to US dollar exchange rate saw a minimal increase of 0.02%, bringing the GBPUSD pair to 1.35731. The pair seems to be in a period of consolidation, with market participants likely awaiting the release of upcoming economic data and policy decisions that might affect currency movements. With high-impact events scheduled, including the US Monthly Retail Trade data, UK Consumer Price Index (CPI), and crucial remarks from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates and economic projections, these events could create volatility in the currency pair.

The news surrounding the decline in the US manufacturing index is likely to exert some downward pressure on the US dollar, as it may contribute to the narrative of a slowing US economy. This could bolster the pound, supporting GBPUSD. However, the movements in the exchange rate will largely depend on the upcoming key economic indicators and central bank decisions. If the upcoming US retail data or Fed decisions reveal further economic concerns, the GBPUSD pair might witness some upward movement, assuming the UK’s CPI data strengthens the pound. Conversely, should the Fed show signs of tightening monetary policy more than anticipated, it could strengthen the dollar, potentially exerting downward pressure on GBPUSD. As such, traders are likely to closely monitor the outcomes of these releases to adjust their positions accordingly.

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What can we expect from GBPUSD today?

GBPUSD on Monday rose 0.02% to 1.35731. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling.

Updated daily direction for GBPUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 1.35309 (S1).

Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 1.36220 or trades above daily pivot 1.35764. Break above could target R1 at 1.36187. While to the downside, we are looking at 1.35309 (S1) and daily low of 1.35342 as support levels. GBPUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 1.36220 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.

For the week to-date, take note that GBPUSD is mixed as compared to the prior week.

Key levels to watch out:

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