Nzdusd rises as markets await key US economic data releases

NZDUSD Analysis

Performance after Monday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Monday	0.67%	40.4 Pips
Week to-date	0.77%	46.2 Pips
June	1.7%	101 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Tue 01:30 PM USD Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth)
Wed 07:00 PM USD Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate)
Wed 07:00 PM USD FOMC Economic Projections
Wed 07:00 PM USD Interest Rate Projections

What happened lately

In the United States, the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index saw a significant decline in June 2025, plunging to -16 points from the previous month’s -9.2 points, as reported by the New York Fed. This sharp drop indicates a worsening manufacturing outlook in the New York area, suggesting a contraction in the sector. This could reflect broader challenges in the manufacturing industry, which may be facing headwinds such as supply chain disruptions, rising input costs, or slowing demand. As a leading indicator, this decline could foreshadow weaker production activity in the coming months and potentially impact employment in the region.

The upcoming economic events in the United States will likely play a significant role in shaping market sentiments. The U.S. Monthly Retail Trade data is scheduled for release, which will provide insights into consumer spending patterns and the health of the retail sector. Furthermore, the key events scheduled for Wednesday, including the Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision, FOMC Economic Projections, and Interest Rate Projections, are highly anticipated by market participants. These releases will offer critical pointers on monetary policy direction and economic outlook, influencing investor decisions and broader market dynamics.

The NZDUSD currency pair has seen an increase of 0.67%, reaching 0.60532 as of Monday, with the pair currently in a state of consolidation. The drop in the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index reflects weakening economic activity, which could weigh on the U.S. dollar as investors reassess growth prospects. Consequently, if the U.S. economic data, particularly the Retail Trade figures and the Fed’s decisions, hint at continued economic slowdown or dovish monetary policy, it could exert further downward pressure on the USD, potentially benefiting the NZDUSD pair. Conversely, surprising positive data or a hawkish Fed stance might strengthen the USD, impacting NZDUSD negatively. Market participants will be focused on these releases to better navigate the currency market movements.

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What can we expect from NZDUSD today?

NZDUSD on Monday rose 0.67% to 0.60532. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling.

Updated daily direction for NZDUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 0.60085 (S1).

Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 0.60877 or trades above daily pivot 0.60481. Break above could target R1 at 0.60928. While to the downside, we are looking at 0.60085 (S1) and daily low of 0.60034 as support levels. NZDUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 0.60877 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.

For the week to-date, take note that NZDUSD is mixed as compared to the prior week.

Key levels to watch out:

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