Usdchf rises 0.36% amid consolidation phase despite weak manufacturing data

USDCHF Analysis

Performance after Monday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Monday	0.36%	28.9 Pips
Week to-date	0.4%	32.2 Pips
June	-1.01%	-82.6 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Tue 01:30 PM USD Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth)
Wed 07:00 PM USD Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate)
Wed 07:00 PM USD FOMC Economic Projections
Wed 07:00 PM USD Interest Rate Projections

What happened lately

The U.S. New York Empire State Manufacturing Index suffered a notable decline, falling to -16 points in June 2025 from a previous -9.2 points in May, as reported by the New York Federal Reserve. This drop indicates a contraction in manufacturing activity within the state, suggesting potential challenges in the economic landscape of the United States. The decrease in the index might be reflective of weaker demand, supply chain disruptions, or other economic pressures impacting manufacturing businesses. Upcoming events such as the U.S. Monthly Retail Trade figures, and critical Federal Reserve announcements, including Interest Rate Decision and related projections, are poised to further guide expectations and influence market sentiment towards the U.S. economy.

Despite the latest manufacturing data, the USDCHF currency pair experienced a rise of 0.36%, reaching 0.81317, as of the recent adjustments on Monday. The pair is currently in a consolidation phase, indicating a period of price stability or potential accumulation before a breakout either upwards or downwards. The impact of the new data release could affect investor sentiment and market dynamics, influencing whether the pair continues in consolidation or begins to trend. Market participants will be closely monitoring any developments or signals, particularly from the upcoming U.S. high-impact economic events, which may alter the financial landscape and USDCHF’s trajectory. Should the Federal Reserve announce interest rate shifts or project an economic outlook that contrasts with current expectations, it could result in heightened volatility in the currency markets, causing potential fluctuations in USDCHF valuations.

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What can we expect from USDCHF today?

USDCHF on Monday rose 0.36% to 0.81317. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising.

Updated daily direction for USDCHF looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 0.80978 (S1).

Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 0.81470 or trades above daily pivot 0.81224. Break above could target R1 at 0.81563. While to the downside, we are looking at 0.80978 (S1) and daily low of 0.80885 as support levels. USDCHF need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 0.81470 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.

For the week to-date, take note that USDCHF is mixed as compared to the prior week.

Key levels to watch out:

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