USDJPY Analysis
| Performance after Monday | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Monday | 0.44% | 63.9 Pips |  |
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| Week to-date | 0.43% | 62.5 Pips |  |
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| June | 0.47% | 67.1 Pips | |
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Upcoming key events (London Time)
Tue 04:00 AM JPY Bank of Japan Short-Term Policy Interest Rate
Tue 01:30 PM USD Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth) Wed 07:00 PM USD Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate) Wed 07:00 PM USD FOMC Economic Projections Wed 07:00 PM USD Interest Rate Projections
What happened lately
The United States observed a significant decline in its New York Empire State Manufacturing Index, which dropped to -16 points in June 2025, down from -9.2 points recorded in May. This indicates a deteriorating manufacturing sector, reflecting reduced business activity and possibly pointing towards a broader economic slowdown. Such a negative shift in manufacturing sentiment can influence investor confidence and may lead to cautiousness in economic outlooks and investment strategies. It signals challenges in the manufacturing industry, potentially affecting employment and production capabilities in the near term.
Meanwhile, Japan anticipates crucial announcements with the Bank of Japan’s Short-Term Policy Interest Rate on the horizon. While their current economic context is not detailed, this upcoming event carries high importance as it could shape monetary policy and affect economic growth prospects. Subsequently, investors and analysts will closely monitor any changes or signals from the central bank, which could have a direct impact on the value of the Japanese yen in the forex market.
In the forex market, the USD/JPY currency pair saw a rise of 0.44%, closing at 144.71. The scheduled high-impact economic events, including the U.S. Retail Trade data and the Federal Reserve’s Interest Rate Decision, along with the FOMC Economic and Interest Rate Projections, are pivotal for determining the pair’s future trajectory. The results of these events will elucidate the economic direction in the U.S., potentially altering interest rate expectations and influencing capital flows between the two nations, thereby affecting USDJPY.
Given the current data, the USDJPY exchange rate may experience volatility in response to upcoming economic indicators in both the U.S. and Japan. If the Federal Reserve suggests a tighter monetary stance or if retail trade numbers exceed expectations, it could lead to USD appreciation, pushing the USDJPY higher. Conversely, any dovish Fed signals or disappointing retail data might weaken the USD. On the Japanese side, any unexpected changes by the Bank of Japan regarding interest rate policies could induce significant movements in the yen. Hence, traders and investors may anticipate fluctuations in the USDJPY pair based on these key developments.
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What can we expect from USDJPY today?
USDJPY on Monday rose 0.44% to 144.71. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising.
Updated daily direction for USDJPY looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Monday trading session.
Looking ahead for the day, immediate upside resistance level is R1 at 145.17 with break above could target R2 at 145.64. While towards the downside, we are looking at daily low of 143.65 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 144.88 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.
For the week to-date, take note that USDJPY is mixed as compared to prior week.
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 146.4 |
| R2 | 145.64 |
| R1 | 145.17 |
| Daily Pivot | 144.41 |
| S1 | 143.94 |
| S2 | 143.18 |
| S3 | 142.72 |