NZDUSD Analysis
| Performance after Tuesday | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Tuesday | -0.58% | -35.3 Pips |  |
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| Week to-date | -0.03% | -1.8 Pips | |
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| June | 0.89% | 53 Pips |  |
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Upcoming key events (London Time)
Wed 07:00 PM USD Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate) Wed 07:00 PM USD FOMC Economic Projections Wed 07:00 PM USD Interest Rate Projections
Wed 11:45 PM NZD GDP (3-mth)
What happened lately
In the United States, the data presented shows a decline in industrial production and retail trade in May 2025. Industrial production fell by 0.2% after remaining neutral in April, indicating a slowdown in the manufacturing sector. Retail trade figures painted a grim picture, with the monthly retail trade dropping sharply to -0.9%, down from a revised -0.1%. This marks a significant downward revision from the initially reported 0.1%. Meanwhile, the retail trade control group did see some improvement, rising to 0.4% from a prior revised negative figure, suggesting limited recovery in core retail activities. Contrastingly, retail trade excluding automobiles fell to -0.3%, further indicating widespread weakness in consumer spending. Compounding these issues, the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index dropped to -16 points from -9.2, suggesting a decline in manufacturing activity in the region, signaling contraction in the sector.
For the NZDUSD currency pair, the outlook is potentially bearish given the current economic situation in the United States. With the U.S. showing signs of weaker economic performance in both industrial production and retail trade, investor confidence may waver, impacting the USD negatively. However, the NZDUSD pair dropped by 0.58% to 0.60179 on Tuesday, indicating that the New Zealand dollar is also experiencing pressure. The pair’s movement is currently in consolidation, awaiting further economic indicators. Upcoming high-impact events, such as the U.S. Federal Funds Rate decision and economic projections, create a high degree of uncertainty. An unchanged or dovish stance by the Fed could lead to further weakening of the USD, providing a boost to the NZDUSD. On the other hand, an unexpected tightening could strengthen the USD. Furthermore, the release of New Zealand’s GDP data on the same day may also influence the pair, depending on the reported figures. Overall, market participants should remain cautious and monitor these events closely to gauge the direction of the pair.
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What can we expect from NZDUSD today?
NZDUSD on Tuesday dropped -0.58% to 0.60179. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling.
Updated daily direction for NZDUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 0.59912 (S1).
Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 0.60795 or trades above daily pivot 0.60353. Break above could target R1 at 0.60621. While to the downside, we are looking at 0.59912 (S1) and daily low of 0.60086 as support levels. NZDUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below 0.60086 would indicate selling pressure.
For the week to-date, take note that NZDUSD is mixed as compared to the prior week.
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 0.6133 |
| R2 | 0.61062 |
| R1 | 0.60621 |
| Daily Pivot | 0.60353 |
| S1 | 0.59912 |
| S2 | 0.59644 |
| S3 | 0.59203 |
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