Australian dollar shows consolidation against U.S. dollar amid mixed economic indicators

AUDUSD Analysis

Performance after Wednesday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Wednesday	0.45%	29.3 Pips
Week to-date	0.34%	22 Pips
June	1.2%	77 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Thu 02:30 AM AUD Labour Force Monthly Employment Change

What happened lately

Interest rate projections in the United States have shown varying movements. The projection for the second year rose to 3.4% from a previous 3.1%, while the first-year projection increased to 3.6% from 3.4%, although this was below the forecast. The projection for the third year remains unchanged at 3.9%. The Federal Reserve’s decision to keep the Federal Funds Rate stable at 4.5% indicates a careful approach to changes in borrowing costs. Meanwhile, initial unemployment claims have slightly decreased to 245,000, down from 250,000. However, the housing market seems to be under pressure, with building permits decreasing to 1.393 million, and housing starts dropping to 1.256 million. Industrial production has also decreased by 0.2%, signifying potential challenges in manufacturing. Retail trade performance was mixed, with the overall monthly retail trade dropping to -0.9%, while the retail control group showed an improvement, rising by 0.4% in May 2025.

The recent U.S. economic indicators present a mixed bag, which could have implications for global currency markets, including the AUDUSD pair. The positive movement in U.S. interest rate projections could strengthen the U.S. dollar due to anticipated higher returns on investments, which might put pressure on the AUD. However, declines in housing starts, building permits, and industrial production might dampen economic optimism, creating downward pressure on the dollar. Furthermore, the rise in employment claims can depict underlying issues in the labor market, potentially impacting the U.S. economy’s perceived strength. As for the AUD, factors such as upcoming employment data will be crucial. The market will watch these figures closely, and a favorable employment report could support the AUD, offsetting some of the U.S. dollar’s strength. Currently, AUDUSD is seeing consolidation, and upcoming economic events could drive the pair’s direction in the near term.

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What can we expect from AUDUSD today?

AUDUSD on Wednesday rose 0.45% to 0.65051. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling.

Updated daily direction for AUDUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 0.64694 (S1).

Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 0.65374 or trades above daily pivot 0.65034. Break above could target R1 at 0.65391. While to the downside, we are looking at 0.64694 (S1) and daily low of 0.64677 as support levels. AUDUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 0.65374 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.

For the week to-date, take note that AUDUSD is mixed as compared to the prior week.

Key levels to watch out:

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