Nzdusd sees moderate rise amidst mixed economic signals from New Zealand and U.S.

NZDUSD Analysis

Performance after Wednesday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Wednesday	0.12%	7.4 Pips
Week to-date	0.27%	16.2 Pips
June	1.19%	71 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Wed 11:45 PM NZD GDP (3-mth)

What happened lately

In New Zealand, the first quarter of 2025 economic data shows a stronger-than-expected GDP growth of 0.8%, up from the revised prior quarter’s figure of 0.5%. This improvement indicates a positive economic environment and potential recovery from the challenges posed by previous periods. On a year-on-year basis, the GDP showed an improvement, standing at -0.7% compared to a revised -1.3% at the end of the fourth quarter. Although still negative, the improvement signifies a lessening of economic contraction, reflecting strengthening economic fundamentals.

In the United States, recent data highlight a moderately mixed economic landscape. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate projections see a slight increase to 3.4% for the second year from 3.1%, while the first year’s rate is slightly below forecast at 3.6%, up from 3.4%. Despite this, the Fed’s decision keeps rates steady at 4.5%. Initial unemployment claims have decreased slightly, suggesting a stabilizing labor market. However, the building permits and housing starts experienced a decline, reflecting potential caution or slowdown in housing market activity. Additionally, industrial production saw a dip, moving to -0.2% in May, indicating challenges in the manufacturing sector. The retail landscape showed a mixed scenario, with monthly retail trade decreasing to -0.9%, although the retail trade control group managed a modest rise to 0.4%.

The improvement in New Zealand’s GDP coupled with relatively steady economic projections presents a stable outlook for the NZD. Conversely, the U.S data paint a more mixed picture, with some areas of economic activity softening despite bullish interest rate expectations. Consequently, the NZD/USD pair could experience moderate strength, driven by better-than-anticipated New Zealand data and mixed signals from the United States economy. The impact on the NZD/USD reflects this, as seen with a 0.12% rise to 0.60253, suggesting market consolidation and a cautious optimism regarding New Zealand’s economic resilience. Traders and investors might view the NZD as a relatively attractive investment in the short term, contingent on upcoming economic events, such as further GDP reports which might alter perceptions and influence the currency pair’s movements.

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What can we expect from NZDUSD today?

NZDUSD on Wednesday rose 0.12% to 0.60253. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling.

Updated daily direction for NZDUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 0.60038 (S1).

Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 0.60567 or trades above daily pivot 0.60302. Break above could target R1 at 0.60518. While to the downside, we are looking at 0.60038 (S1) and daily low of 0.60087 as support levels. NZDUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 0.60567 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.

For the week to-date, take note that NZDUSD is mixed as compared to the prior week.

Key levels to watch out:

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