EURUSD Analysis
| Performance after Thursday | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Thursday | 0.11% | 12.1 Pips |  |
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| Week to-date | -0.38% | -44.1 Pips |  |
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| June | 1.37% | 155 Pips | |
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Upcoming key events (London Time)
No major events for the day.
What happened lately
In the United States, the Federal Reserve has reported a slight increase in the U.S. interest rate projections for the 2nd year, which rose to 3.4% from the previous rate of 3.1%. The 1st-year projections also saw an increase to 3.6% from 3.4%. However, longer-term projections remained unchanged at 3.9%. Additionally, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision regarding the Federal Funds Rate was left unchanged at 4.5%, indicating a stable monetary policy approach. Meanwhile, the initial unemployment insurance claims decreased to 245,000 from 250,000, signaling a slight improvement in employment figures. In other economic indicators, the U.S. saw a decrease in building permits to 1.393 million and housing starts to 1.256 million in May 2025, reflecting a slowdown in the housing market.
In the Euro Area, the Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) remained unchanged in May 2025, both on a month-to-month and a 12-month basis, with a steady rate of 0% and an annual rate of 2.3% respectively. The general HICP also remained steady at 0% for the same period. This stability in consumer prices indicates a lack of significant inflationary pressure within the Euro Area economies at this time.
The latest economic data suggests a stable yet tight monetary policy stance from the Federal Reserve, with gradual increases in interest rate projections. This contrasts with the steady and inflation-neutral position seen in the Euro Area. For the EURUSD currency pair, this divergence in economic indicators could suggest a tilt towards a stronger U.S. dollar if the Federal Reserve’s policy results in a more attractive yield environment for investors. Despite this, the pair witnessed an increase by 0.11% to 1.14939, indicating a short-term consolidation. This may reflect the market’s current neutral positioning as it awaits further signals or significant economic events. With no major economic events on the immediate horizon, the EURUSD is likely to continue consolidating in the short term, barring any unforeseen economic developments or policy announcements from relevant central banks.
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What can we expect from EURUSD today?
EURUSD on Thursday rose 0.11% to 1.14939. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling.
Updated daily direction for EURUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 1.14598 (S1).
Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 1.15001 or trades above daily pivot 1.14799. Break above could target R1 at 1.15141. While to the downside, we are looking at 1.14598 (S1) and daily low of 1.14458 as support levels. EURUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 1.15001 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.
For the week to-date, take note that EURUSD is mixed as compared to the prior week.
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 1.15684 |
| R2 | 1.15342 |
| R1 | 1.15141 |
| Daily Pivot | 1.14799 |
| S1 | 1.14598 |
| S2 | 1.14256 |
| S3 | 1.14055 |
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