Gbpusd rises amid mixed economic data from UK and US

GBPUSD Analysis

Performance after Thursday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Thursday	0.29%	38.7 Pips
Week to-date	-0.73%	-99.3 Pips
June	0.15%	19.7 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Fri 07:00 AM GBP Retail Sales Volumes (1-mth)

What happened lately

The United Kingdom’s economic data reveals modest improvements in consumer confidence, as the GfK Consumer Confidence Index rose to -18 points in June 2025 from -20 points in May. The Bank of England interest rate decision remained unchanged at 4.25%. Inflation indicators show a downward trend, with the Core CPI Inflation Rate for the 12 months ending in May 2025 decreasing to 3.5% from 3.8% in April. The Retail Price Index for May dropped to 0.2% from 1.7% in April, and on a 12-month basis, it declined to 4.3% from 4.5%. The overall Consumer Prices Index (CPI) for a year decreased slightly to 3.4% in May from 3.5% in April, and fell to 0.2% month-over-month compared to April’s 1.2%. This data suggests mild inflationary pressures and a gradual improvement in consumer optimism.

In the United States, the recent economic data release indicates a mixed picture. While the Federal Reserve has left the Federal Funds Rate steady at 4.5%, projections suggest a rise in interest rates, with expectations increasing from 3.1% to 3.4% for the second year and from 3.4% to 3.6% for the first year. Nonetheless, the housing market seems to be cooling, as Building Permits and Housing Starts both saw declines in May 2025. Initial unemployment claims for the week ending June 14th fell to 245K, down from a revised 250K, indicating some improvement in the labor market.

The news from both the UK and US is likely to have a blended impact on the GBPUSD currency pair. The recent increase in UK consumer confidence alongside falling inflation might support a strengthening of the British pound. However, the unchanged interest rate and decreasing inflation can potentially weaken it. For the US, stable interest rates, but forecasts indicating future increases lend support to the US dollar albeit somewhat offset by the slowing housing market. In real terms, GBPUSD rose by 0.29% to 1.34602 recently, suggesting market consolidation. The performance of these currencies might hinge on imminent data, particularly the upcoming GBP Retail Sales Volumes, which could provide further direction for the currency pair. As a result, any continual positive economic signals from the UK could further strengthen the pound against the dollar, unless countered by stronger-than-expected US economic indicators.

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What can we expect from GBPUSD today?

GBPUSD on Thursday rose 0.29% to 1.34602. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising.

Updated daily direction for GBPUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 1.34051 (S1).

Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 1.34700 or trades above daily pivot 1.34375. Break above could target R1 at 1.34927. While to the downside, we are looking at 1.34051 (S1) and daily low of 1.33824 as support levels. GBPUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 1.34700 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.

For the week to-date, take note that GBPUSD is mixed as compared to the prior week.

Key levels to watch out:

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