NZDUSD Analysis
| Performance after Thursday | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Thursday | -0.61% | -36.5 Pips |  |
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| Week to-date | -0.25% | -14.8 Pips |  |
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| June | 0.67% | 40 Pips |  |
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Upcoming key events (London Time)
No major events for the day.
What happened lately
In New Zealand, the GDP for the first quarter of 2025 showed an increase to 0.8% from a previously revised figure of 0.5% in the fourth quarter. This indicates a positive momentum in the country’s economic activity at the beginning of the year. Additionally, the annual GDP for the 12 months ending in Q1 2025 improved to -0.7%, a slight recovery from the revised -1.3% figure in the previous quarter. These figures reflect a gradual improvement in New Zealand’s economy, suggesting positive, albeit modest, growth prospects.
In the United States, the interest rate projections have been adjusted by the Federal Reserve, with the second-year rate increasing to 3.4% from 3.1%, and the first-year rate slightly rising to 3.6% from 3.4%. However, the longer-term projection remains unchanged at 3.9%, indicative of a stable outlook for monetary policy. The Federal Reserve has kept the Federal Funds Rate steady at 4.5%, highlighting their cautious approach towards rate adjustments. Labor market data pointed to a slight improvement, with initial unemployment claims dropping to 245K from the revised 250K. However, the housing sector showed some signs of cooling down, with building permits decreasing to 1.393M in May from 1.422M in April, and housing starts dropping to 1.256M from 1.392M.
The news regarding New Zealand’s GDP growth and the relatively stable U.S. economic indicators are influential for the NZDUSD currency pair. Despite New Zealand’s modest economic improvements, the pair has dropped by 0.61% to 0.59888. This decline could be attributed to market participants perceiving U.S. interest rates as more robust or reflective of a stronger economic recovery compared to New Zealand. The slight rise in U.S. interest rates and positive unemployment claims data may have strengthened the U.S. dollar relative to the New Zealand dollar, contributing to the drop in the currency pair. With no major upcoming events, it seems the current market sentiment is weighing more heavily in favor of the U.S. economic outlook, at least in the short term.
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What can we expect from NZDUSD today?
NZDUSD on Thursday dropped -0.61% to 0.59888. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling.
Updated daily direction for NZDUSD looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Thursday trading session.
Looking ahead for the day, immediate support level is at S1 0.59531 with break below could see further selling pressure towards S2 at 0.59174. To the upside, with the current momentum bearish, we prefer to look at breakout of the recent daily high of 0.60353 as a potential indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below 0.59585 would indicate selling pressure.
For the week to-date, take note that NZDUSD is mixed as compared to the prior week.
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 0.61067 |
| R2 | 0.6071 |
| R1 | 0.60299 |
| Daily Pivot | 0.59942 |
| S1 | 0.59531 |
| S2 | 0.59174 |
| S3 | 0.58763 |
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