Nzdusd rises 0.5% amid housing market concerns and trade balance shifts

NZDUSD Analysis

Performance after Wednesday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Wednesday	0.5%	30.1 Pips
Week to-date	1.56%	93 Pips
June	1.59%	95 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Thu 01:30 PM USD GDP annual rate
Fri 01:30 PM USD PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy (12-mth)

What happened lately

In May 2025, the United States faced a significant decline in new-home sales, falling by 13.7% after experiencing a 10.9% increase in April. This drop in the housing sector could indicate potential cooling in the real estate market or broader economic challenges affecting consumer confidence and purchasing power. Additionally, the U.S. House Price Index for April 2025 showed a further decline to -0.4% from -0.1% in March, hinting at a slowing housing market with possible implications for real estate investment and broader economic health.

In contrast, New Zealand showed an improvement in its trade balance over the 12-month period, narrowing the deficit from -4.97 NZD to -3.79 NZD from April to May 2025. This positive shift may reflect better trade conditions or improved management of imports and exports. However, New Zealand’s exports decreased slightly from $7.84 in April to $7.68 in May, suggesting potential challenges in the export market. Imports, on the other hand, experienced a slight increase from $6.42 to $6.44 over the same period, which might point to rising domestic demand or price changes affecting the cost of imports.

The observed economic trends in the U.S. and New Zealand have implications for the NZDUSD currency pair. The decrease in U.S. new-home sales and the drop in house prices could dampen investor sentiment towards the USD, potentially weakening its position. Conversely, New Zealand’s improved trade balance may bolster confidence in the NZD. On the recent trading day, the NZDUSD pair rose by 0.5% to 0.60354, appearing to be in a consolidation phase. Economic indicators to watch include the upcoming U.S. GDP annual rate figures and the PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy. These indicators will likely influence the market’s perception of economic stability and growth potential in the U.S., impacting future moves in the NZDUSD exchange rate.

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What can we expect from NZDUSD today?

NZDUSD on Wednesday rose 0.5% to 0.60354. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising.

Updated daily direction for NZDUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 0.60106 (S1).

Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 0.60423 or trades above daily pivot 0.60265. Break above could target R1 at 0.60512. While to the downside, we are looking at 0.60106 (S1) and daily low of 0.60017 as support levels. NZDUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 0.60423 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.

For the week to-date, take note that NZDUSD is mixed as compared to the prior week.

Key levels to watch out:

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