Usdcad rises slightly amid mixed economic data from US and Canada

USDCAD Analysis

Performance after Wednesday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Wednesday	0.05%	6.4 Pips
Week to-date	-0.12%	-17 Pips
June	-0.17%	-24 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Thu 01:30 PM USD GDP annual rate
Fri 01:30 PM USD PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy (12-mth)

What happened lately

In the United States, the housing market shows signs of declining activity as new-home sales experienced a significant drop of 13.7% in May 2025, reversing the previous month’s growth of 10.9%. Additionally, the U.S. House Price Index decreased by 0.4% in April from a smaller decline of 0.1% in March, as reported by the Federal Housing Finance Agency. These indicators suggest a cooling off in the housing market, potentially due to rising interest rates or other economic pressures that may be affecting consumer purchasing power and confidence in the housing sector.

In Canada, the inflation landscape presents a different picture. The monthly CPI inflation rate rose to 0.6% in May 2025, following a slight deflationary period of -0.1% in April, according to Statistics Canada. The Bank of Canada’s Core Inflation Rate also saw a small increase to 0.6% from 0.5% the previous month. However, the 12-month CPI inflation rate remained unchanged at 1.7%, and the core inflation CPI held steady at 2.5%, indicating that while there is some monthly price momentum, the annual inflation rate remains relatively subdued.

The impact on the USDCAD currency pair from these economic data points suggests a period of consolidation. The decline in U.S. housing market data could weigh on the U.S. dollar, as it may imply broader economic challenges. On the other hand, increased monthly inflation rates in Canada show some economic activity that might support the Canadian dollar. However, the steady annual inflation figures indicate that there is not yet significant pressure for the Bank of Canada to alter its monetary policy aggressively. With the USDCAD rising slightly by 0.05% to 1.37204, the market appears in a holding pattern, awaiting additional economic data, notably the high-impact U.S. GDP and PCE Price Index releases, which will likely provide further direction. These factors combined suggest a near-term balance in the USDCAD pair, subject to how upcoming data impacts expectations for U.S. and Canadian economic conditions and central bank actions.

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What can we expect from USDCAD today?

USDCAD on Wednesday rose 0.05% to 1.37204. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling.

Updated daily direction for USDCAD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 1.37034 (S1).

Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 1.37545 or trades above daily pivot 1.3729. Break above could target R1 at 1.37459. While to the downside, we are looking at 1.37034 (S1) and daily low of 1.37120 as support levels. USDCAD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 1.37545 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.

For the week to-date, take note that USDCAD is mixed as compared to the prior week.

Key levels to watch out:

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