USDCHF Analysis
| Performance after Wednesday | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Wednesday | -0.06% | -4.8 Pips |  |
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| Week to-date | -1.67% | -136.7 Pips |  |
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| June | -2.16% | -177.6 Pips | |
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Upcoming key events (London Time)
Thu 01:30 PM USD GDP annual rate Fri 01:30 PM USD PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy (12-mth)
What happened lately
In the United States, the new-home sales data for May 2025 revealed a significant downturn, with a decrease of 13.7%. This marked a sharp reversal from the previous month, where there was an increase of 10.9% in April. The housing sector, which is often a crucial indicator of economic health, thus showed signs of weakening. Additionally, the U.S. House Price Index for April 2025 fell further to -0.4%, compared to -0.1% in March, signaling declining prices in the housing market. These statistics indicate potential cooling in the U.S. housing sector, potentially implicating wider economic consequences.
In Switzerland, the ZEW Financial Market Survey for June 2025 indicated notable improvement in economic sentiment. The index rose to -2.1 points, a significant leap from -22 points in May. This uplift suggests growing optimism regarding the Swiss financial market, hinting at a positive shift in economic prospects or recovery in investor confidence. Such sentiment improvements could have wide-ranging effects, influencing market behaviors and economic forecasts positively.
The recent economic data from the U.S. and Switzerland are likely to have implications for the USDCHF currency pair. The downturn in the U.S. housing sector, alongside a decline in house prices, may exert downward pressure on the U.S. dollar due to potential concerns over economic health and consumer confidence. Meanwhile, the marked improvement in Switzerland’s economic sentiment could bolster the Swiss franc as investors and traders may perceive Swiss assets as providing more stability or growth potential. Consequently, USDCHF might experience downward tendencies as a response to decreased demand for the U.S. dollar amidst these developments. However, upcoming key events including the U.S. GDP annual rate release and the PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy, could also significantly influence the pair, depending on how they meet or defy market expectations.
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What can we expect from USDCHF today?
USDCHF on Wednesday dropped -0.06% to 0.80428. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling in oversold zone.
Updated daily direction for USDCHF looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 0.80257 (S1).
Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 0.80802 or trades above daily pivot 0.8053. Break above could target R1 at 0.807. While to the downside, we are looking at 0.80257 (S1) and daily low of 0.80359 as support levels. USDCHF need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below 0.80359 would indicate selling pressure.
For the week to-date, take note that USDCHF is bearish as the pair posted lower by -1.67%.
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 0.81143 |
| R2 | 0.80973 |
| R1 | 0.807 |
| Daily Pivot | 0.8053 |
| S1 | 0.80257 |
| S2 | 0.80087 |
| S3 | 0.79814 |
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