Audusd rises amid mixed economic signals from the US and Australia

AUDUSD Analysis

Performance after Thursday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Thursday	0.59%	38.4 Pips
Week to-date	1.52%	98 Pips
June	1.82%	117 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Fri 01:30 PM USD PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy (12-mth)
Fri 09:30 PM USD Bank Stress Test Results

What happened lately

In the United States, there is a mix of economic data for May and the first quarter of 2025. The Pending Home Sales saw an increase of 1.8% in May, rebounding from a decrease of 6.3% in April. This suggests some recovery in housing demand. Concurrently, Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims dropped to 236K in the week ending June 21, indicating a tightening labor market. Additionally, Durable Goods Orders excluding Transportation rose by 0.5% in May, showing an increase in manufacturing activity. There is a substantial increase in New Orders for Durable Goods by 16.4% for May, recovering from a 6.3% decline in April. Nondefense Capital Goods Orders excluding Aircraft increased by 1.7% in May. The PCE Price Index also ticked up to 3.7% in Q1 2025 from 3.6% in Q4 2024, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures. However, the U.S. GDP declined in Q1 2025 at an annual rate of -0.5% compared to -0.2% in the previous quarter, signaling economic contraction. New-home sales decreased by 13.7% in May after a 10.9% increase in April.

In Australia, the Monthly CPI Indicator for May 2025 decreased to 2.1% from 2.4% in April. This suggests a slowdown in inflationary pressures. As Australia’s inflation metrics illustrate a calming down, this might reduce any urgency for monetary policy tightening by the Reserve Bank of Australia.

The Australian Dollar to U.S. Dollar (AUDUSD) experienced a rise of 0.59% to 0.65448. With mixed signals from the U.S. economy showing both resilience in certain sectors like durable goods and weakness in others such as GDP and new-home sales, market participants might balance their views on the USD. On the other hand, Australia’s slower inflation hints at a stable economic outlook. The combination of these factors may bolster the AUD relative to the USD, but the upcoming high-impact U.S. economic data releases on the PCE Price Index and Bank Stress Test Results could introduce more volatility. If market sentiment interprets these upcoming events as negative for the USD or supportive for the AUD, it may result in further appreciation of the AUDUSD. However, unexpected outcomes could reverse the recent trend depending on investor risk preference and global economic sentiment.

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What can we expect from AUDUSD today?

AUDUSD on Thursday rose 0.59% to 0.65448. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising in overbought zone.

Updated daily direction for AUDUSD looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Thursday trading session.

Looking ahead for the day, immediate upside resistance level is R1 at 0.65706 with break above could target R2 at 0.65964 or figure level area. While towards the downside, we are looking at daily low of 0.65058 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 0.65640 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.

For the week to-date, take note that AUDUSD is mixed as compared to the prior week.

Key levels to watch out:

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