Gbpusd climbs on mixed us economic data and upcoming uk economic events

GBPUSD Analysis

Performance after Thursday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Thursday	0.51%	70.1 Pips
Week to-date	2.09%	280.6 Pips
June	2.04%	274.7 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Fri 07:00 AM GBP GDP (3-mth)
Fri 01:30 PM USD PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy (12-mth)
Fri 09:30 PM USD Bank Stress Test Results

What happened lately

The U.S. economy shows mixed data. Pending home sales increased by 1.8% in May 2025, recovering from a 6.3% decline in April, which indicates a potential rebound in the housing market. Similarly, the U.S. Durable Goods Orders had a significant rise of 16.4% in May, following a 6.3% drop in April, suggesting healthier manufacturing activity. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders also increased to 0.5% from 0.2%. However, new-home sales saw a decline of 13.7% in May compared to April’s positive figures. Meanwhile, the labor market remains robust with initial unemployment insurance claims dropping to 236K from 246K. Inflationary pressures are evident with the PCE Price Index inching up and the GDP Price Index slightly increased to 3.8% from 3.7%. Nonetheless, economic growth seems to struggle as the U.S. GDP contracted to an annualized rate of -0.5% in Q1 2025, compared to a slight decline in the previous quarter.

The anticipated upcoming economic events might influence the GBPUSD pair. The release of the UK GDP (3-month) figures can provide insights into the British economy, and any positive surprise would typically support the GBP. In the U.S., the core PCE Price Index excluding food and energy is a vital inflation measure. An unexpected rise might push the Federal Reserve to consider monetary tightening, which could strengthen the USD. Additionally, the results of the USD Bank Stress Test will be crucial for assessing the financial sector’s health in the U.S. If banks pass the stress tests positively, it could boost investor confidence in the USD. Since GBPUSD rose by 0.51% to 1.37265 recently, any US data showing economic improvement or inflationary pressures could potentially lead to a stronger USD, thereby putting downward pressure on the GBPUSD pair, however, positive developments in the UK GDP would work in favor of strengthening the GBP.

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What can we expect from GBPUSD today?

GBPUSD on Thursday rose 0.51% to 1.37265. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising in overbought zone.

Updated daily direction for GBPUSD looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Thursday trading session.

Looking ahead for the day, immediate upside resistance level is R1 at 1.37795 with break above could target R2 at 1.38324 or figure level area. While towards the downside, we are looking at daily low of 1.36556 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 1.37705 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.

For the week to-date, take note that GBPUSD is bullish as the pair continued to trade higher and is up by 2.09% over the past few days.

Key levels to watch out:

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