Nzdusd sees rise amid mixed economic signals from New Zealand and US

NZDUSD Analysis

Performance after Thursday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Thursday	0.32%	19.3 Pips
Week to-date	1.64%	98 Pips
June	1.68%	100 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Fri 01:30 PM USD PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy (12-mth)
Fri 09:30 PM USD Bank Stress Test Results

What happened lately

In New Zealand, consumer confidence showed a positive development as the ANZ – Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence index increased to 98.8 in June 2025, up from 92.9 in May. This indicates an improvement in consumer sentiment, which can be a positive sign for economic activity. Meanwhile, the country’s trade balance appears to be improving as well, reporting a reduced deficit of -3.79 NZD in May over the revised -4.97 NZD in April. Despite this narrowing trade deficit, there are mixed signals from the trade components: imports marginally increased from $6.42 in April to $6.44 in May, while exports saw a decrease from $7.84 to $7.68 over the same period.

In the United States, various economic indicators painted a mixed picture. Pending home sales rose by 1.8% in May following a sizable drop in April, while initial unemployment claims showed a reduction to 236K at the end of June, suggesting an improving labor market. Additionally, U.S. Durable Goods Orders excluding Transportation and Defense both exhibited significant upticks, with core orders increasing by 1.7% and non-defense capital goods orders rising by 15.5% in May. Nevertheless, the GDP for Q1 2025 slipped to an annual rate of -0.5%, signaling a contraction. Meanwhile, inflation measures, such as the PCE Price Index and GDP Price Index, suggested moderate inflationary pressures as they inched up slightly. Also, despite previous gains, new-home sales plummeted by 13.7% in May.

The NZDUSD currency pair rose by 0.32% to 0.60547 on Thursday. The contrasting economic signals from New Zealand and the U.S. are likely influencing this gradual appreciation. New Zealand’s improved consumer confidence and narrowing trade deficit could be positively influencing the NZD, while in the U.S., mixed economic data with a hint of inflation and a shrinking GDP are acting as significant drivers. Upcoming events, such as the U.S. PCE Price Index and bank stress test results, hold the potential to impact the U.S. dollar prominently. If these upcoming data reveal strong economies or stabilize inflation prospects, it might exert pressure on the NZDUSD, making the greenback more attractive, potentially leading to a correction in the NZDUSD rate. Inversely, weaker results might further benefit the NZD, continuing its current uptrend against the USD.

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What can we expect from NZDUSD today?

NZDUSD on Thursday rose 0.32% to 0.60547. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising in overbought zone.

Updated daily direction for NZDUSD looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Thursday trading session.

Looking ahead for the day, immediate upside resistance level is R1 at 0.60767 with break above could target R2 at 0.60986 or figure level area. While towards the downside, we are looking at daily low of 0.60286 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 0.60746 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.

For the week to-date, take note that NZDUSD is mixed as compared to the prior week.

Key levels to watch out:

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