Usdchf sees decline as mixed economic data impacts markets

USDCHF Analysis

Performance after Thursday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Thursday	-0.61%	-49.4 Pips
Week to-date	-2.06%	-168.7 Pips
June	-2.55%	-209.6 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Fri 01:30 PM USD PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy (12-mth)
Fri 09:30 PM USD Bank Stress Test Results

What happened lately

In the United States, the economic data presents a mixed outlook. Pending Home Sales in May 2025 showed an encouraging increase of 1.8%, rebounding from a decrease of 6.3% in April. The labor market also showed signs of strengthening, with Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims falling to 236K in the week ending 21 June, a decrease from the revised figure of 246K. Meanwhile, Durable Goods Orders excluding Transportation saw an improvement to 0.5% in May from 0.2% in April. Furthermore, overall Durable Goods Orders surged by 16.4% in May, a strong rebound following a 6.3% decrease in April. Nondefense Capital Goods Orders, excluding Aircraft, also increased by 1.7% in May, up from a revised -1.5% in April. However, the GDP contracted at an annual rate of -0.5% in Q1 2025, down from -0.2% in Q4 2024, signaling potential economic challenges. New-home sales had a marked decrease of -13.7% in May compared to a 10.9% increase in April, adding to concerns over the housing sector. Though the PCE Price Index rose to 3.7% in Q1 2025 from 3.6% in Q4, the general economic indicators suggest a need for cautious optimism in the near future.

In Switzerland, the ZEW Financial Market Survey data for June 2025 showed significant improvement, rising to -2.1 points from -22 points in May. This notable upturn suggests increased confidence in the Swiss financial markets and may indicate a potential stabilization in the economic outlook.

The recent economic indicators impacting the USDCHF exchange rate suggest a potential influence on its future movements. The U.S. demonstrates both positive and negative economic signals with significant growth in certain sectors and challenges elsewhere. The decline in GDP growth, coupled with a mixed labor and housing market, may likely exert downward pressure on the U.S. dollar. Conversely, Switzerland’s improved financial market conditions could enhance the Swiss franc’s attractiveness. Consequently, these developments may lead to a further decline in USDCHF as investors might favor the Swiss franc’s perceived stability over the uncertain U.S. economic performance. Moreover, upcoming events such as the U.S. PCE Price Index release and bank stress test results could further impact investor sentiment and influence foreign exchange markets, signaling potential volatility in USDCHF fluctuations.

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What can we expect from USDCHF today?

USDCHF on Thursday dropped -0.61% to 0.79934. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising in oversold zone.

Updated daily direction for USDCHF looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Thursday trading session.

Looking ahead for the day, immediate support level is at S1 0.79645 with break below could see further selling pressure towards S2 at 0.79355. To the upside, with the current momentum bearish, we prefer to look at breakout of the recent daily high of 0.80490 as a potential indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below 0.79778 would indicate selling pressure.

For the week to-date, take note that USDCHF is bearish as the pair posted lower by -2.06%.

Key levels to watch out:

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